Bolivia minister pledges ‘legal certainty’ for investors 

Bolivia’s new mining minister is vowing to woo back foreign investors in silver, tin and lithium who fled two decades of Socialist Party rule. 

“We are going to work hard to provide the legal certainty that investors as well as eliminating administrative hurdles,” mining minister Marco Antonio Calderon told The Northern Miner in an interview last month. 

“We have a big problem: the cycles of nationalization and privatization which have sapped legal certainty.” 

Under former president Evo Morales, who ruled the country from 2006 until 2019, Bolivia expanded the role of the state in natural resources sector, nationalizing oil and gas production and expropriating strategic assets such as the country’s largest tin mine. More recently, mining cooperatives have encroached on private mining operations, sometimes with the support of authorities. 

Game-changer? 

Rodrigo Paz’s landslide victory in October’s presidential election has a chance to change the game for Bolivia. His centre-right, pro-business government is betting that Bolivia’s vast but underdeveloped lithium resources can help stabilize an economy strained by inflation, fuel shortages and dwindling dollar reserves. 

“We have a lot of work to do, but we also have a very clear idea of what we want to get done,” Calderon said. 

A Swiss-trained chemist, Calderon has spent most of his career in the mining industry. This includes 17 years as general secretary of Asociacion Nacional de Mineros Medianos, Bolivia’s main industry body for the private mining sector. 

Since taking office in November, the new administration has taken tough measures to stabilize the economic situation. It has cut public spending including costly fuel subsidies, liberalized exchange controls and secured support from multilateral banks.  

In January, Fitch Ratings lifted Bolivia’s sovereign credit rating to CCC (from CCC-), noting that these early efforts should help to boost depleted foreign reserves. 

Export driver 

Following the collapse of natural gas production, after years of underinvestment, minerals such as silver and zinc have become the South American country’s main source of foreign currency, accounting for almost two-thirds of exports last year. 

Bolivia remains a relatively minor player in mining. Minerals exports hit $4.5 billion in 2024, mostly gold, silver, tin and zinc. That compares with $51 billion from Chile, $48 billion in Peru and $43 billion in Brazil. 

That’s not to say foreign interest in Bolivia’s mining industry is dead.

Recent transactions include Andean Precious Metals’ (TSX: APM) 2018 acquisition of the San Bartolomé processing plant from Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE), Santacruz Silver Mining’s (NASDAQ: SCM) 2021 purchase of Glencore’s (LSE: GLEN) Bolivian mining operations and San Cristobal Mining’s 2023 deal to buy the San Cristobal zinc mine, the country’s largest, from Japan’s Sumitomo. 

Orvana Minerals (TSX: ORV), meanwhile, is planning to restart production at its Don Mario mine in eastern Santa Cruz department later this year. 

Exploration efforts 

There is also exploration. New Pacific Metals (TSX: NUAG) is exploring the Carangas copper deposit and Silver Sand silver deposit, while Eloro Resources (TSX: ELO) is advancing its Iska Iska silver tin deposit in Potosi. 

Activity could be even higher, given the country’s size and geological potential. 

That’s why Bolivia’s government is targeting a series of projects that can be brought online relatively quickly. 

“We have identified a potential investment of $1 billion that could be effective in the next two years,” Calderon said without being specific. 

Bolivia has already eliminated value added taxes on imported capital goods and fuels – and more changes are planned. Rather than a root-and-branch overhaul of mining laws, which could take years, the Paz government plans to make surgical changes to existing legislation to provide greater guarantees to investors, Calderon said. 

The administration wants to suspend all tax on profits during the first three years of operation so investors can realize their returns faster. 

Calderon also wants to make it easier for investors to work with state mining firm Corporación Minera de Bolivia (Comibol), which controls some of the most promising territory, and with the mining cooperatives that are banned from associating with private companies. 

“This could be a win-win situation and a significant one, requiring small rule changes to boost national productivity,” the minister said. 

Investor interest 

Minister Calderon is due in Toronto at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada’s annual convention. There, he plans to highlight Bolivia’s potential to investors and geologists. 

“We want to have the eyes of the world on Bolivia,” he said. 

The shift comes as minerals prices and investor interest in commodities surge. 

In early February, Calderon travelled to Washington to discuss Bolivia’s possible participation in the United States’ new critical minerals initiative. With deposits of tungsten, antimony and rare earths waiting to be developed, Bolivia could become an important supplier for countries looking to reduce their reliance on China. 

Still, any deal could take time given the tense relations between Bolivia and U.S. this century. 

“We need to have a clear idea of how we want to receive this cooperation to develop the mining sector so it can be sustainable over time,” Calderon noted. 

Growth accelerator 

Bolivia holds some of the world’s largest lithium resources. According to the 2025 United States Geological Survey (USGS), the country has 23 million tonnes of identified lithium resources, about 20% of the global total, roughly double Chile’s. 

The new government plans to open lithium projects to foreign capital, boost transparency around opaque contracts, certify resources through independent third parties and pursue broader economic reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence. 

Still, political promises alone are unlikely to shift foreign investor sentiment without hard guarantees, according to Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of Chile-based GEM Mining Consulting. 

Fiscal stability 

Investors will not commit capital without legal certainty, fiscal stability, and reliable mechanisms to resolve disputes, noting that international arbitration clauses are often a minimum requirement, Guzmán said. 

What’s more, several factors impede Bolivia’s ability to turn its vast lithium resources into bankable projects. High magnesium content, complex geology and costly logistics – including a more than 480-km route to the nearest port – mean the U.S. Geological Survey does not classify Bolivia’s resources as commercially viable. 

Even with regulatory improvements, Bolivia is unlikely to become a major producer before the end of the decade, Federico Gay, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said in a research note. 

As a result, the country’s mining outlook is likely to remain a two-speed story: silver and zinc could provide continuity and cash flow, with lithium acting as the transformational prize – one that will depend on the new administration’s ability to align investment rules, partner selection and social license with the scale of the industrial challenge.