South America’s rightward shift lifts mining

Colombia’s May 31 presidential election will test whether Latin America’s shift towards more market-friendly governments can deliver a more reliable environment for mining investment, with polls showing a left-leaning candidate in the lead. 

The vote comes at a time when miners are already re-embracing the region. Argentina under President Javier Milei has moved aggressively to court investment, Chile has swung back towards pro-business policies under President José Antonio Kast and Bolivia’s Rodrigo Paz has signalled a more open stance to investment. Colombia, with vast but underdeveloped mineral potential, is now weighing how to expand mining amid rising demand for metals and tighter environmental scrutiny.  

Mining accounts for about 2.4% of Colombia’s GDP, yet the sector contracted last year amid higher taxes, weaker exploration and deteriorating security. The industry still generated $16.1 billion (C$22.2 billion) in exports in 2025, or roughly a third of the total, but output and shipments fell as investors navigated environmental restrictions, proposed legislative changes and criminal activity in mining regions. 

“The election will likely revolve around two contrasting policy visions,” Eduardo Ruiz, a Bogotá-based analyst with Control Risks, said in an interview with The Northern Miner Group. “One broadly aligned with the current government’s energy transition agenda and another favouring a more investment-friendly regulatory environment.” 

Regional context 

Latin America’s importance to global metals supply gives the election wider weight. Chile and Peru dominate copper output, Mexico leads in silver, and Argentina, Chile and Bolivia together hold some of the world’s largest lithium reserves. Colombia plays a smaller role, but remains a major coal exporter, a significant gold and nickel producer, and a country with roughly 9.7 million tonnes of copper resources but minimal production. 

Across Latin America, governments are broadly separating into those emphasizing environmental controls and state direction, and those prioritizing regulatory clarity, foreign capital and faster permitting. The distinction is shaping capital allocation decisions, though operating environments across the region remain unpredictable. 

Argentina offers the clearest example of a turn towards mining. Milei’s government has made resource development central to its economic overhaul, extending the Incentive Regime for Large Investments, or RIGI, to July 2027, offering long-term tax, customs and foreign-exchange stability to qualifying projects. The framework lowers income tax rates, removes value-added tax on capital spending and eliminates export taxes, materially improving project economics, officials said. 

“We have a president that is willing to do the right things, whatever it takes,” Daniel González, Argentina’s Secretary for the Coordination of Energy and Mining, based in Buenos Aires, said at the PDAC convention in Toronto last month. “He tells people that he wants them to make money because if they make money, the country will be better and jobs will be created.” 

Stability counts 

Companies are responding to those changes. 

“Macroeconomic stabilisation has sent a very, very positive signal to foreign investors,” Anne Edwards, vice-president corporate affairs at Glencore (LSE: GLEN), said on another Argentina Day panel at PDAC. “A stable operating environment really is key because these projects are very expensive and take a very long time to get off the ground.” 

Chile’s return to a more market-oriented approach under Kast reinforces that trend. As the world’s largest copper producer, Chile’s regulatory posture sets the tone for the Andes. A government emphasizing growth and permitting clarity signals to miners that conditions may stabilize after a period of policy uncertainty. 

Bolivia has taken a more cautious step in the same direction. Paz has sought to revive investor interest in lithium and energy, but he inherits a stark fiscal situation after years of a pegged currency and the sharp depletion of foreign reserves, according to John Price, managing director of Miami-based Americas Market Intelligence. With debt-servicing costs up and hard currency scarce, the government faces pressure to find new revenue, raising the risk of higher mining taxes even under a pro-investment policy stance. 

Policy shifts and limits 

Mexico under President Claudia Sheinbaum illustrates the limits of a simple regional narrative. While more measured in tone than her predecessor, her government has revoked more than 1,000 mining concessions. The country remains engaged in critical minerals discussions with the United States, but continues to tighten state oversight of the sector. 

Peru’s political volatility adds another layer of uncertainty. The removal of right-leaning President José Jerí in February and the installation of interim leader José Balcázar, a leftist, ahead of an April 12 election have opened the door to a potential policy recalibration. For miners, Peru remains indispensable, but its repeated political resets complicate any attempt to map ideology cleanly onto investment conditions. 

Colombia’s own mining outlook underscores what is at stake. The country launched tenders in late 2025 for 14 strategic copper regions and hosts a pipeline that includes AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) at Quebradona, Cordoba Minerals (TSXV: CDB; Nasdaq: CDM) at Alacrán, Libero Copper (TSXV: LBC) at Mocoa and Royal Road Minerals (TSXV: RYR) at Guintar-Aleman-Margaritas. 

Iván Cepeda, the left-wing candidate aligned with President Gustavo Petro’s coalition, is leading ahead of the May vote, which will likely narrow a crowded field of 14 candidates to two for a June 21 run-off. Surveys suggest Cepeda would face the top right-leaning contender, Paloma Valencia, in a very tight race.  

“From an investor standpoint, the key is not only who wins,” Juan Ignacio Guzman, the CEO and founder of Chilean consultancy GEM, said in an interview with the Northern Miner Group. “It is whether the next president can build a governing coalition that delivers regulatory stability.” 

Deeper risks 

Even with a favourable election outcome, deeper risks remain. A report by London-based MS Risk notes that mining in Latin America is increasingly shaped by organized crime, weak governance and social conflict. 

“It doesn’t matter how pro-business they are,” AMI’s Price said during a webinar in Vancouver last month. “If gold prices are high, silver prices are high and copper prices are high, you are vulnerable to renegotiation and to higher taxes.” 

Several governments in the region are also facing widening deficits and limited access to capital, increasing the risk that mining becomes a source of short-term revenue through higher royalties or contract revisions, even where policy frameworks appear supportive. Operators say policy gains must be matched by execution on the ground for projects to advance. 

“It is more than just fiscal terms,” Geoff Streeton, chief development officer at Paris-based Eramet (EPA: ERA), said on the PDAC panel with Glencore, Goldman Sachs and Vicuña Corp., a joint venture of Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN) and BHP (LSE, NYSE, ASX: BHP). “You have to have the enablers across infrastructure, energy supply and access to skills and capabilities.” 

Even governments elected on pro-mining platforms can face competing pressures once in office. Fiscal shortfalls, local opposition and political deal-making can quickly dilute reform agendas, while campaign rhetoric often gives way to more pragmatic and sometimes interventionist policies. In several countries, leaders have shifted tone after elections, balancing investor outreach with measures aimed at securing public support or boosting state revenues. 

Political alignment alone is therefore not enough. Governments across the ideological spectrum have intervened in mining when it suited domestic priorities, while local opposition, Indigenous consultation requirements and environmental constraints continue to shape timelines regardless of national policy direction. 

Colombia as a signal 

Colombia’s election will be watched as a signal of whether political rhetoric can be translated into durable change, while Chile’s new government is also under scrutiny for whether it can convert its vast copper and lithium resources into sustained supply in an increasingly geopolitical minerals market.  

Governments that combine a more supportive stance towards mining with tangible progress on security, permitting and institutional capacity would reinforce the view that the region is becoming more investable. 

The challenges are structural for Colombia, and investors will be looking for evidence that any new administration can address them beyond campaign messaging. 

“Colombia could become a meaningful copper producer, but it will not happen on potential alone,” Guzman said. “It requires at least one, preferably two, large-scale mines reaching construction and steady-state.” 

– With files from Henry Lazenby.