Critical minerals boom lifts mining dealmaking

Global mining M&A is gaining momentum this year, driven by a surge in critical minerals deals, rising government intervention and a shift towards supply chain security, speakers said this week at the SME Current Trends in Mining Finance conference in New York.

Chinese acquisitions have accelerated, particularly in gold and copper, with about $4.6 billion in deals completed, while total metals and mining transactions have reached roughly $44 billion year-to-date, according to Bloomberg data presented at the conference. Activity in battery metals and rare earths has climbed sharply, with deal values in those segments up more than 300% from a year earlier.

“China has been quite acquisitive so far in 2026. We’ve seen China accelerate on gold and copper deals,” Todd Sibilla, commodity product specialist at Bloomberg, said during a session at the three-day event. “And frankly in other metals it’s been even more so.”

The shift reflects a broader realignment of capital and policy towards strategic resources. Governments are moving to secure supply chains and reduce reliance on foreign inputs, even as geopolitical tensions and regulatory scrutiny add complexity to dealmaking.

Patchy activity

M&A activity has been buoyed by policy support and strategic demand, but remains uneven across regions and commodities. Precious metals transactions have increased alongside strong gold prices and central bank buying, particularly in China and India, where official gold reserves have risen significantly over the past five years. At the same time, base metals are facing weaker price expectations, with analysts forecasting declines in lithium and other battery materials despite continued long-term demand.

Government policy is playing an increasingly central role in shaping deals. The U.S. administration has focused on supply chain diversification and strategic stockpiling, including a proposed $12 billion initiative aimed at securing critical minerals supply. That has been accompanied by more direct state involvement in transactions, particularly in sectors deemed vital to national security.

“In addition to the investment, you have a set of veto rights that the government will insist on,” George Karafotias, partner at New York law firm A&O Shearman, said. “When the time comes to either sell the business or to do something that may implicate what the government sees as contrary to national security, then it can step in and block the deal.”

Such involvement adds complexity for investors, particularly in cross-border transactions. Karafotias said government participation often includes minority equity stakes of around 10% to 15%, alongside influence over strategic decisions, effectively giving regulators leverage both as investors and gatekeepers.

Flexibility

Regulatory conditions, however, have also become more flexible in some jurisdictions. In the U.S., antitrust authorities have shown greater willingness to approve large transactions by accepting structural remedies such as divestitures, rather than pursuing litigation.

“It’s certainly easier today to get a deal cleared than it was sort of a year or two ago,” Karafotias said.

That shift has helped facilitate large and complex transactions, including merger-of-equals structures designed to navigate political and regulatory sensitivities. One example discussed at the conference was the proposed combination of Anglo American (LSE: AAL) and Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B; NYSE: TECK), structured to preserve Canadian ownership and address national interest concerns.

The deal includes commitments to maintain headquarters and senior management in Vancouver, keep the Teck name, and invest billions of dollars in Canada over several years. Speakers said such concessions highlight the growing importance of political considerations in cross-border M&A.

“I don’t think the door is closed to any transaction,” Steven McKoen, partner at Blakes, said. “It just goes to show that there’s going to have to be some creative planning involved by the acquirers . . . to assure the regulators that there’s going to be a net benefit.”

Challenges

Case studies presented at the session underscored how companies are using M&A to navigate industry challenges. Pan American Silver’s (TSX, Nasdaq: PAAS) acquisition of MAG Silver, for example, was framed as a strategic move to increase production and consolidate assets during a period of high silver prices. The deal added about 5 million oz. of annual silver output — roughly a 20% increase — while giving shareholders the option of cash or stock consideration.

Similarly, transactions involving U.S. and Canadian companies have required complex structuring to address tax, regulatory and shareholder approval hurdles. McKoen pointed to cross-border deals where Canadian investors face immediate tax liabilities when receiving U.S. shares, creating pressure for liquidity mechanisms such as share buybacks.

Beyond individual deals, broader macro trends are shaping the outlook for mining M&A. Speakers cited geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty and inflation risks as potential headwinds, particularly if interest rates rise again after recent cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

“There are more headwinds on the horizon,” Karafotias said, pointing to instability in global markets and the risk of reduced cross-border investment as countries adopt more protectionist policies.

Critmin support

Even so, demand for critical minerals is expected to support continued deal activity, particularly as governments and companies seek to secure domestic supply chains. The trend towards deglobalization could further reinforce that dynamic, with investment increasingly focused within allied jurisdictions.

“The countervailing aspect of the deglobalization trend is a desire . . . to produce copper, nickel, lithium, et cetera,” McKoen said. “If you’ve limited investing in those products outside of your own borders, then you won’t have it when those borders get higher.”

While uncertainty may dampen overall transaction volumes, speakers said the strategic importance of mining assets — particularly in energy transition and defence applications — will continue to drive consolidation and investment.

“Critical minerals across the board are being treated as security assets,” Sibilla said.

With files from Rachel Lee.