Raymond James raises gold, copper forecasts, lowers uranium

Brian MacArthur of Raymond James is increasing his price forecasts for gold, copper, zinc and coking call and lowering his estimate for uranium.

The mining analyst has revised his average gold price for 2019 to US$1,301 per oz. from US$1,293 per oz. “primarily on the back of incrementally dovish commentary from Central Banks suggesting that global monetary policy will remain accommodative thereby keeping real interest rates low.”

His forecast for coking coal is now US$181 per tonne, a 6% increase from his previous US$171 per tonne, while zinc has been raised to US$1.21 per lb. from his earlier US$1.15 per lb. and copper has increased by 1% to US$2.98 per lb. from US$2.94 per lb.

The higher forecasts were based on “continued tightness in physical markets and the appearance of progress on U.S./China trade negotiations.”

Longer term, his preferred base metal remains copper, he adds, “where we expect a somewhat balanced market in 2019/20 before entering into a market supply/demand deficit in 2021.”

As for uranium, MacArthur has lowered his estimate by about 8% from US$33.63 per lb. to US$30.80 per lb., “to reflect the weaker market to start the year.”