Uranium market gathers momentum in 2026: Sprott

The global uranium market entered 2026 with strong momentum, with spot prices surging by about a quarter in January to above $100 per lb. for the first time in two years.

The rally towards uranium’s peak in 2024 suggests that the uranium sector has a bigger supportive backdrop than last year, which was marked by volatility, according to Sprott Asset Management. Prices declined during the first few months, before bouncing from the low $60s per lb. to the high $80s in the second half.

The gains in January reflect “an important shift in investor attention” from downstream nuclear themes back to the upstream supply chain, largely due to improvements in policy clarity fundamentals, Sprott’s ETF products director Jacob White said. 

The firm’s Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX: U.U for USD; U.UN for CAD) has been amongst the biggest buyers of uranium, adding 4 million lb. to its uranium fund this year, which now has a total holding of nearly 79 million.

Sprott’s purchases and the spot price gains follow a busy start to the year for the wider nuclear sector, after Facebook parent company Meta in early January signed deals with three U.S. utilities to buy elec­tricity for its data centres. The agreements with nuclear energy providers Vistra, TerraPower and Oklo cover up to 6.6 gigawatts of power by 2035 and are to support Meta’s operations and its Prometheus supercluster artificial intelligence servers in New Albany, Ohio.

Policy drivers

In a note published last week, the Sprott analyst pointed to the Trump administration’s Section 232 framework on critical minerals as a key catalyst, as it explicitly proclaims uranium’s importance to U.S. energy and national security.

A heightened strategic status could lead to further policy support and tangible actions taken by the U.S. government, such as the recently announced $2.7 billion funding to strengthen domestic uranium enrichment services over the next decade, the report noted.

“More broadly, these actions sit within a clear ambition to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050, including another target to have 10 new large reactors under construction by 2030. If the U.S. were to quadruple nuclear capacity, it would require an extraordinary amount of incremental uranium supply,” White wrote.

He also hypothesized that the U.S. government could begin to take up equity stakes in uranium miners in exchange for offtake agreements with price floors. “We are seeing these types of transactions in other critical materials, so why not uranium?”

In July, the Department of Defense signed a price floor agreement with rare earths miner MP Materials (NYSE: MP), which owns the Mountain Pass mine in California. 

Supply tightening

On market fundamentals, the Sprott analyst pointed to December 2025 as a defining moment for its bull market thesis, when top producer Kazakhstan tightened exploration control on uranium. The current prices, according to its state miner Kazatomprom (LSE: KAP), do not provide enough incentives to unlock future production. As such, supply would be constrained in the coming years unless higher uranium prices are realized.

Uranium supply-demand imbalance may likely grow. Credit: Sprott

Globally, the slow pace of mine development and a concentrated, under-invested supply base are set to widen the market deficit, Sprott added, citing producer data. The supply problem would be exacerbated by rising demand for nuclear energy and continued buildout of AI data centres, it said.

Contracting in catch-up mode

Sprott’s report also highlighted that uranium contracting has been falling behind for years, which could further boost prices and market momentum.

Utilities buy nuclear fuel years ahead, but contracting has undershot the replacement rate for a 13th straight year in 2025, pushing uncovered needs into the future. This deferred procurement builds pressure, it said, raising the risk that utilities will have to return to the market later with larger volumes to secure fewer options and higher prices.

Uranium contracting a coiled spring? Credit: Sprott

According to Sprott, the timing is particularly acute in 2026, as today’s decisions shape early-2030s supply. Early signs of this catch-up emerged in late 2025, with contracting picking up after a subdued first nine months amid uncertainty.

Taken together, uranium enters 2026 with an increasingly constructive setup, White wrote, adding that “January delivered an early reminder of uranium’s non-linear behavior when fundamentals tighten and sentiment turns.”