U. S. MARKETS – OCT. 14-20

U. S. markets were down during the Oct. 14-20 trading session after investors realized that, although various government bailouts may revive credit markets and allow banks to resume lending, the world economy is slowing down, and some developed economies could slip into recession. This cannot be positive for corporate profits, so markets moved down on lower earnings expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 122 points, or 1.3%, to 9,265; the S&P 500 Index declined 18 points, or 1.8%, to 985; and the Nasdaq fell 74 points, or 4%, to 1,770. Precious metal issues also moved down, with the Amex Gold Bugs Index losing 29 points, or 11.5%, to 223, and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index dropping 9.5 points, or 9%, to 95.

A slowdown can’t be good for commodities either. Website MarketWatch.com reported that China’s economy grew by 9% in the third quarter. While this may seem brisk, it is lower than the 10.1% growth rate in the second quarter. Moreover, growth may weaken further in the last quarter. The lower growth rate is a result of slower exports and construction.

No wonder that National Bank economists are bearish on commodities. Clment Gignac, National Bank’s chief economist and strategist, says that both physical and financial demand for commodities are falling. And economist Stfane Marion forecasts that the world economy will grow by only 3% in 2009, a bearish indicator for commodity demand. He believes that the U. S. will be in a recession for 12 to 15 months, and sees a serious deceleration in growth in emerging economies.

The coal sector, which declined in recent weeks, staged a rebound during the trading session. Heavyweight Peabody Energy rose US$3.67 to US$37.83, and Consol Energy gained US$1.84 to US$39.39, but Arch Coal lost US57 to US$26.75. Iron and coal miner Cliffs Natural Resources, which is proposing to take over coal miner Alpha Natural Resources, rose US64 to US$36.47, and Alpha added US64 to US$43.43.

The potash and fertilizer sector gave up last week’s gains, led by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, which fell US$24.16 to US$81.54.Copper major Freeport-Mc- Copper & Gold dropped US$8.65 to US$36.72, while aluminum heavyweight Alcoa lost US$1.41 to US$12.41, both owing to weakness in base metal markets.

U. S. most active issues
	VOLUME	WEEK
	(000s) HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
Vale* RIO	373254 16.96	10.19	13.81	-1.68
Alcoa* AA	139712 15.00	10.96	12.41	-1.41
Freeport McMo*FCX	134696 47.99	30.03	36.72	-8.65
PotashCSask* POT	131766116.75	66.81	81.54	-24.16
Mosaic* MOS	100967 47.08	30.10	38.93	-5.28
Barrick Gold* ABX	100937 30.57	22.90	26.51	-1.61
Peabody Enrgy* BTU	94343 37.98	24.08	37.83	+ 3.67
Goldcorp* GG	87337 26.45	18.56	22.23	-2.45
Kinross Gold* KGC	58710 14.93	10.22	11.92	-1.24
Newmont Mng* NEM	55573 33.98	26.42	31.02	-0.06

U. S. greatest percentage change
		VOLUME	WEEK
		(000s)	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
Global Gold*	GBGD	1360	0.45	0.06	0.37	+236.3
Raven Gold*	RVNG	734	0.02	0.01	0.02	+100.0
Cream Mnrls*	CRMXF	28	0.10	0.06	0.10	+ 42.8
Douglas Lk Ml*	DLKM	906	0.55	0.35	0.50	+ 35.1
Aspire Intl*	APIT	158	0.34	0.26	0.34	+ 25.9
Uranium Res*	URRE	4421	1.05	0.81	1.03	+ 25.6
Dejour Enterp*	DEJ	50	0.50	0.28	0.50	+ 21.9
Strata O&G*	SOIGF	366	0.30	0.21	0.28	+ 21.7
Stillwater Mg*	SWC	6040	4.95	3.50	4.61	+ 20.3
America West*	AWSR	452	0.21	0.15	0.20	+ 17.6
Campbell Res*	CBLRF	1389	0.03	0.01	0.01	-66.6
Uranium Star*	URST	370	0.09	0.04	0.04	-60.0
Zoro Mng*	ZORO	163	0.17	0.07	0.08	-55.5
World Vent*	WVNTF	51	0.06	0.03	0.03	-50.0
Nevsun Res*	NSU	3043	0.71	0.30	0.36	-43.7
Evolving Gold*	EVOGF	31	0.20	0.12	0.12	-42.8
Shoshone Silv*	SHSH	183	0.13	0.06	0.06	-40.0
Coeur d Alene*	CDE	47511	1.39	0.82	0.89	-36.4
Silver Res*	SLVV	65	0.15	0.10	0.12	-33.3
Industrl Mnls*	IDSM	153	0.04	0.02	0.02	-33.3

U. S. greatest value change
WEEK
	VOLUME	CLOSE	CHANGE
Fording C C T* FDG	25106253	80.04	+ 3.87
Peabody Enrgy* BTU	94342688	37.83	+ 3.67
CONSOL Energy* CNX	40481348	39.39	+ 1.84
Mesabi Trust* MSB	839652	15.85	+ 1.55
Stillwater Mg* SWC	6039566	4.61	+ 0.78
Alpha Nat Res* ANR	23580624	43.43	+ 0.64
Cleveland-Cli* CLF	43121228	36.47	+ 0.64
OM Group* OMG	5628201	18.66	+ 0.41
Global Gold* GBGD	1359905	0.37	+ 0.26
Uranium Res* URRE	4420833	1.03	+ 0.21
Rio Tinto* RTP	4244504	179.21	-24.29
Potash C Sask* POT	13 1766100	81.54	-24.16
Freeport McMo* FCX	134695595	36.72	-8.65
ASA (Bermuda)* ASA	428905	42.04	-6.32
Mosaic* MOS	100967340	38.93	-5.28
Royal Gold* RGLD	5148716	31.47	-5.20
Randgold Res* GOLD	5662399	31.98	-4.78
BHP Billi-BHP* BHP	36757354	39.43	-4.55
Teck Comin B* TCK	26564974	15.52	-3.92
Intrepid Pots* IPI	2926700	20.60	-3.91