US focus on Greenland grab misguided: analysts

United States officials are misguided if they think gaining control of Greenland will give them access to a wealth of resources capable of shrinking overnight the country’s critical minerals reliance on China, analysts say.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he has to “have” Greenland, telling reporters that controlling the semi-autonomous Danish territory is a matter of national security. Key Trump aide Stephen Miller upped the ante in a CNN interview this week, saying the island should “obviously” be part of the U.S. and that “nobody is going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland.”

Increasingly strident statements such as those have sparked outrage in Europe and elsewhere, with many European leaders warning of catastrophic consequences. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Monday that an American takeover of Greenland would probably spell the end of the Nato military alliance.

“We’re highly skeptical of Greenland as a cure-all for the U.S. minerals problem – especially in the near term,” Timothy Puko, director of commodities at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk research and consulting firm, said Thursday via email. 

While there are good reasons for the U.S. to consider setting up long-term partnerships to tap some of the island’s potential, “the logistics of retrieving any of the resources there are difficult, probably far more so than with other likely partners such as Australia, Canada, Brazil and Latin America at large,” Puko added. “It’s cold, it’s icy, it’s remote, and much of it is unproven. Prospects like that take sometimes decades to develop, and most development there is in its earliest stages.”

Unforced error

Trying to seize Greenland, “by force or coercion, would be an unforced error for the Trump administration,” Otto Svendsen, an associate fellow at the Washington-based Center for International & Strategic Studies, wrote in a commentary last year.

“It is unnecessary on national security grounds, as Washington can already achieve its objectives through working with Greenland and Denmark. Moreover, Trump’s rhetoric could backfire and revive Chinese overtures toward the territory, activate European Union trade defense instruments, and accelerate the ongoing militarization of the Arctic.”

At any rate, it’s far from certain that the tough talk from Washington will result in U.S. boots on the ground. Trump is expected to pursue economic coercion to annex Greenland, Eurasia Group said this week in a report. Military action is unlikely “given its significant downside risks,” the firm added.

Untapped potential

Greenland hosts a wide variety of mineral resources such as coal, copper, gold, graphite, ilmenite, molybdenum, iron ore, lead, nickel, precious stones, rare-earth elements, silver, titanium, uranium and zinc.

Many of those fall in the category of so-called critical minerals, whose demand is driven by clean energy and technology transitions because they are deemed essential for everything from electric vehicles and renewable energy to semiconductors and defence technologies.

“Clearly the fact that most of Greenland is covered by areas with assumed potential for additional critical mineral resources highlights a possibly large untapped mineral potential that needs to be further explored,” according to a 2023 report on the island’s mineral potential.

Geological complexity and low grades often make deposits harder to develop than those in established mining jurisdictions, though Greenland’s geology resembles that of well-mined countries such as Canada and Australia.

The island’s harsh climate, limited infrastructure and high operating costs compound costs and risk – as do strict environmental regulations. Greenland has banned the exploration and mining of uranium ore with an average concentration of more than 100 parts per million, as well as the extraction of oil and natural gas.

4 billion years

Its ice-free zone, covering about 400,000 sq. km., hosts complex geological terranes that represent almost 4 billion years of geological history, according to the 2023 report from the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.

That same report judged Greenland’s potential to be “high” for 11 critical minerals, including graphite, molybdenum, niobium and platinum group metals. It also found “moderate” potential for 16 other elements, including antimony, chromium, lithium and nickel.

Greenland hosts an estimated 1.5 million tonnes of rare earths reserves, according to 2025 data from the United States Geological Service. That represents less than 2% of global reserves, trailing even the U.S. endowment of 1.9 million tonnes, USGS data show.

China has the most reserves of rare earth elements globally, with 44 million tonnes, followed by Brazil, with 21 million tonnes, India, with 6.9 million tonnes, and Australia, with 5.7 million tonnes, the data show. Canada’s reserves amount to 830,000 tonnes.

Over the years, the USGS has worked with Greenland’s government to map mineral resources, providing expertise such as hyperspectral imaging.

Large deposits

Several large deposits have been mapped and partially delineated in Greenland, particularly in the south, while vast areas remain poorly explored. The ice-covered interior – about 80% of the island’s surface – and difficult terrain have meant that many promising geological settings are under-sampled or lack modern resource estimates.

The southern Gardar province is believed to contain some of the territory’s most significant known resources. They include the Ilímaussaq complex, whose biggest orebodies are rich in rare earths and allied metals such as lithium, tantalum, niobium, hafnium and zirconium.

South Greenland is also home to Critical Metals’ (Nasdaq: CRML) Tanbreez project, which holds one of the biggest rare-earth deposits on Earth. Tanbreez contains at least 45 million tonnes in resources within a massive kakortokite unit that has largely been underexplored to date, according to the company.

Limited support

East Greenland, which has traditionally been unexplored, is considered ripe for new discoveries of several commodities. It hosts the giant Malmbjerg molybdenum deposit and the Skaergaard intrusion, a well-known source of platinum group elements, titanium, vanadium and gold whose most recent aeromagnetic and gravity surveys date back to 1971. The region also holds the Karstryggen evaporitic strontium deposit.

Still, support for mining among Greenlanders remains limited. And while authorities have taken early steps to support some development, “all political signs suggest locals don’t want to be rushed into any of this,” Eurasia Group’s Puko says. “In many cases they are likely to decide environmental protections and conservation are much more important than minerals development for other countries.”