The mining industry is playing by the wrong rules, and has been for decades. Many of us are scientists, and believe truth is discovered by establishing all of the facts. However, as Oscar Wilde told us, the truth is rarely pure and never simple. Reality is easily distorted by incomplete data and misunderstood information, and what is real doesn’t matter as much as people’s perceptions, accurate or not. This dichotomy is exposed by publication of a report on the looming, catastrophic, underinvestment in mining.
The role of perception has been debated by philosophers since Plato, 400 years before Christ, and Aristotle (384-322 BC) was one of the first to observe that we might perceive to have seen or heard something, without actually seeing or hearing anything. Whenever we mis-see or mis-hear, Aristotle says, we nonetheless see or hear something real; it is just not what we take it to be.
The difference between reality and perception comes to mind as we approach Saint George’s Day. The patron saint of England was born in Cappadocia (now Turkey) and died Apr. 23, 303. According to tradition, he was a Roman soldier (indeed a member of the Praetorian Guard for emperor Diocletian) who was decapitated for refusing to recant his Christian faith. Venerated in the 5th century, Saint George is buried in Lod, Israel.
I’ve not done a survey, but I suspect the public perception of Saint George centres on two spurious roles; as a dragon slayer and as an inspiration for our troops.
Whether you believe in dragons, or not, this narrative has pre-Christian origins, and was only transferred to Saint George during English Crusades to the Holy Land (1095-1291). Moreover, much of Saint George’s perceived military role has less to do with his own exploits than the inspired writing of William Shakespeare (who was both born and died on Saint George’s Day).
English exhortations to Saint George in battle are most eloquent in Shakespeare’s play Henry V (written in 1599), which is centred on the English king’s battles in France in 1415 (part of the Hundred Years’ War; 1337-1453).
Shortly before the decisive battle of Agincourt, the English army was besieging the city of Harfleur, and (in Act III) Shakespeare has the English king tell his men: “Once more unto the breach,” even if they have to “close the wall with English dead.” Henry concludes by urging the troops “Follow your spirit, and upon this charge, cry God for Harry, England and Saint George.”
It’s unlikely Henry V actually said anything similar (or why, indeed, English troops would feel especially empowered by a long-dead Roman soldier) but that is the perception. Everyone believes Henry V was an unrivalled motivator.
Miners believe that facts should speak for themselves. A report published recently by BHP and Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM) concluded that the cumulative consumption of nickel and copper will have to quadruple and double, respectively, over the next 30 years if the Paris Agreement (to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is to be achieved.
Readers of The Northern Miner know that modern life is fundamentally dependent on the metals, energy and chemicals that the natural resources sector provides. We know that this material needs to be supplied sustainably, affordably and at scale, and that rising standards of living and population growth point to increasing resource consumption. The resources industry is aware that we must also provide the material to reconstitute how the world produces energy.
The report by BHP and LGIM, entitled “The Energy Transition Dilemma,” starts with a warning, observing that having a common goal of limiting global warming (as set out in the Paris Agreement) does not mean there is a common or accepted path of how to get there. The report stresses that nothing will be delivered if the supply of metals does not keep pace with the spectacular demands expected to be created by the needs of the energy transition.
The report argues that there are two clear roles for investors. First, engage constructively with the resources industry to help drive down operational greenhouse gas emissions. Second, mobilize the capital that will be required to ensure metal supply does not become an obstacle in the race to Paris.
The report concludes “the prize for reducing and ultimately eliminating the mining sector’s operational carbon footprint is large.” As an indication of the scale of the prize, Wood Mackenzie recently calculated that the industry’s base metals capital expenditure bill to achieve a 1.5°C outcome is currently US$2 trillion.
The facts seem clear, but for far too many people the truth is not yet apparent. Perceptions of the industry have been fostered over many years, and are now getting in the way.
As usual “Kill all the sparrows” and then cringe as the unintended consequences evolve. Permitting procedures that require 10 years to production have crippled the natural resource industried on all fronts. Killing Windy Craggy by the NDP is a “sparrow” to contemplate. One of the few significant Canadian sources of cobalt outside of then nickel-tied sources . Killing or crippling the pipelines then lamenting the inability to deliver oil and gas where and when needed iin the world is a painful lesson in reality that has already doubled the cost of filling up the car. Thank you liberals and thank you to provincial attitudes to national interest Magical hydrogen is just going to appear out of the sky with no thought of the nuclear power or hydrocarbon fueled energy to magically create hydrogen. Your grade 9 chemistry lab showed you that hydrogen combines with oxygen to produce water. What was not explained is that the hydrogen was created by the dissociation of the two elements that requires ENERGY of some sort. Golly gosh. Have all our rulers not asked the question? Nuff said