Steel demand gaining in strength

Consumption of crude steel in the non-Communist world is expected to rise by 6% this year over 1987 levels, to 478 million tonnes, delegates to the 22nd annual conference of the International Iron and Steel Institute in Seoul, South Korea, were told recently.

According to the institute’s secretary-general Lenhard Holschuh, the increase, the fourth highest level since 1973, is an upward deviation from a trend of growing consumption.

Total world steel usage in 1988 is expected to reach 782 million tonnes, the highest amount ever and 35 million tonnes, or 4.7%, better than last year. The previous peak in consumption occurred in 1979.

The increase is attributed to better demand in the industrialized countries, with apparent consumption in the United States expected to climb by 4.3% to 110 million tonnes and in the European Community by 6% to 111 million tonnes. Best of all, in Japan the forecast consumption of steel is expected to jump by 10 million tonnes, or 13%, to 87 million tonnes.

In all, the industrialized nations are expected to consume 361 million tonnes in 1988, up 7% from last year.

The developing countries will consume about 4% more steel this year than in 1987. In Latin America, growth in the steel consumption of Venezuela and Mexico would be more than offset by declines in Brazil and Argentina, leading to a decline of 3.8% for the region as a whole.

The developing nations of Asia are expected to enjoy strong growth in steel consumption, with yearly increases in India and Taiwan amounting to 15%, and in South Korea 8%.

Steel usage in the United Soviet Socialist Republic, mainland China and other “centrally planned economies” is expected to show a rise of about 2%.

For 1989, Holschuh said the institute foresees the momentum of economic activity slowing down, resulting in lower consumption. In the U.S. and Japan, the decline would be about 7.5%, giving 1989 consumption of 102 million tonnes in the U.S. and 80 million tonnes in Japan.

In the European Community, the current strength of the steel market is expected to last until at least mid-1989, with consumption falling marginally, by 1.4%, next year to 109 million tonnes. Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, India and South Korea in Asia and developing countries as a whole are expected to increase consumption in 1989.

A decrease of 5% in steel consumption is forecast in 1989 for the industrialized nations, 2.3% for the non-Communist world and about 1% globally.

In the longer term, a continuing though slight downtrend is expected in the steel consumption of the industrialized countries, taking their 1995 consumption to 323 million tonnes (although in a cyclical peak year, that total could reach 347 million tonnes). Steel markets in the developing countries are expected to grow more rapidly, averaging 4% per year. Bas ed on current figures, world consumption of steel is expected to grow by about 1% annually to the mid-1990s.

Output from Canada’s five uranium producers last year reached a record 12,456 tonnes uranium, reports Energy, Mines and Resources Canada.

Total shipments in 1987 under all active domestic and export contracts were 13,200 tonnes, valued at $1.1 billion, the excess over production being drawn from inventories.

At the end of last year, total recoverable known uranium reserves were estimated to be 559,000 tonnes, down slightly from 1986. Although exploration at several recently discovered deposits in northern Saskatchewan added to Canada’s over- all uranium reserves, the additions were not sufficient to replace last year’s record production, the federal ministry reports.

Total exploration expenses for uranium, at $37 million last year, were up $4 million from 1986, and that in a year when spot market price indicators were in decline. About 95% of the expenditures were made in Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories.

In 1987, 60 companies participated in 58 active exploration projects. These projects were managed by about a dozen operators, the 10 most active of which accounted for 97% of total expenditures.

Non-U.S. foreign-based companies committed more than 60% of the total exploration expenses in 1987, which, according to the ministry, reflects the sizeable commitment most of Canada’s major uranium customers are making to the future of the Canadian uranium industry, in their quest for long- term uranium supplies for their nuclear power stations.

Canada produces approximately one-third of the world’s uranium, about 85% of which is exported to electrical utilities, primarily in Japan, western Europe and the U.S.