SME speakers preview mineral industry’s future

More than 4,400 delegates attended the 1993 annual meeting and exhibit of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration hosted by this self-proclaimed “Biggest little city in the world.”

Theme of this year’s event was “Minerals — Civilization’s Foundation for the Future.”

Keynote session speakers included Joseph Coates, president of a policy research organization specializing in the study of the future; Frank Joklik, president of mining giant Kennecott; and Lyn Arscott, general manager of health, environment and loss prevention at Chevron.

Coates predicted that the principal factor affecting the future of the planet will be population growth which, he said, is projected to increase to 8.4 billion by the year 2025 from the current 5.4 billion.

Although the increase in population is a generally positive one for the mining industry, Coates painted a somewhat bleak picture of its ultimate future in North America, predicting that at some point only coal mining would be permissible.

Coates further postulated that the future would bring the mining of metallic asteroids and a “totally managed globe” where every square metre of the world would be subject to continuous or semi-continuous remote sensing. He conjured up images of George Orwell’s novel, 1984, and Big Brother.

Joklik, who followed Coates, began by quoting a saying: “He who lives by the crystal ball may end up eating ground glass.” He provided an industry view of the future, noting the worldwide recognition that market economies are more effective than centrally controlled economies will bring added competition to the industry as privatization advances.

Economic developments in Russia and China are largely unknown factors and Joklik stressed that the mining industry must be comfortable with change and be willing to react. He added that those first to do so will be the ones to survive.

Arscott offered a historical review of the environmental movement, noting that since 1972 more than 10,000 pages of federal regulations have been produced and complying with them costs the oil industry about US$120 billion per year.

He did not have any cost figures for the mining industry but expressed concern over whether the compliance money is being spent wisely. Arscott agreed with Coates’ statement, singling out population growth as the biggest environmental issue of our time, as well as reiterating industry’s terrible public credibility rating. He said recent studies on whom Americans believe when it comes to the environment indicate the public gives environmental groups the highest credibility rating and industry the lowest. Arscott said industry should be aware that U.S. Vice-President Al Gore, author of Earth in the Balance, has deep, almost religious, environmental beliefs.

This, tied with a great deal of public support for the environmental movement, should be of concern to industry since public values drive politics. Arscott said business must work to increase its credibility with the public as well as fund additional scientific studies to ensure that money committed to environmental protection is wisely spent. He noted that studies have shown that air pollution causes perhaps 2% of cancers, while diet and smoking are responsible for more than 50% of cancers, yet far more money is spent on pollution control.

Arscott stressed that industry’s future depends on its ability to create a meaningful dialogue with the environmental movement as well as to improve its public image.