Despite military governments across West Africa, the region’s security situation is worsening as insurgents flush with kidnapping ransoms and illegal mining profits threaten fuel supplies and road networks, according to an expert with 18 years of experience in the region.
While miners and diplomats used to be able to authoritatively state the Islamic war was isolated in the Sahel’s north, far away from their operations, that’s no longer the case, says Liam Morrissey, CEO of MS Risk. He advises a slew of majors, explorers, contractors, investors and insurers across Africa and other global hotspots.
Dubai reportedly paid $50 million in October for the release of two United Arab Emiratis – held by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims), commonly referred to by its acronym JNIM. They were kidnapped in southern Mali, apparently trying to buy artisanal or illegally mined gold.
“This is supercharging al Qaeda or JNIM because they are used to having kidnap cases run for three to five years and finish for a ransom of between $2 million and $6 million,” Morrissey, who’s worked on more than 800 hostage releases, said by phone from the U.K. where he’s based.
“Now, all of a sudden, in a space of six weeks, they appear to have got $50 million and that’s a lot of bribes, that buys a lot of ammunition and equipment. It sparks copycat attacks. We’re going to risk having bandits and ordinary criminals going out to target expats to try to upsell them.”
Not targeting majors
Even so, the insurgents are not directly targeting majors operating in the region. They couldn’t run a large mine, don’t want to disturb large employers and are more interested in carving out territory from governments where they can operate smuggling routes, Morrissey says. They want to control hundreds of millions of dollars in illegal mining from the region’s circa 3 million people drawn to the activity by record gold prices.
Rebels even apologized after an attack this year on one gold miner’s convoy because they thought it was a Mali government operation, according to company and other security sources who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Credit: L. Morrissey
Higher grades
Producers such as Endeavour Mining (LSE, TSX: EDV; US-OTC: EDVMF), B2Gold (TSX: BTO; NYSE-A: BTG), West African Resources (ASX: WAF; US-OTC: WFRSF), Orezone Gold (TSXV: ORE) and Iamgold (TSX: IMG; NYSE: IAG) are drawn to the region in search of higher grades and lower labour costs than conventional jurisdictions such as Canada and Australia.
But over the past decade security expenses have ballooned as coups installed juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – among the world’s poorest countries despite their mineral wealth. They asserted independence by kicking out troops from the UN and colonial ruler France, and struggled to counter Islamic extremists penetrating from the north.
Alliance
The trio abandoned the Economic Community of West African States to avoid pro-democracy sanctions, formed the Alliance of Sahel States and turned to Russian mercenaries for support. The shift from the West has opened opportunities for JNIM to expand along coastal states such as Ghana, Togo, Benin and Ivory Coast which could be a significant development for 2026, according to Morrissey and the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace.
“They’re all in serious risk right now,” said Morrissey, who served as a Lt. Col. in the Canadian and British armies. “How we’ll know is when we see terrorist attacks in those countries. It might start small and be assassinations or kidnappings inside the borders, but the worst-case scenario will be a shopping centre attack or a hotel attack in the capital cities.”
While insurgents have established their strongest regional presence in Burkina Faso after a better supported military in Mali pushed out terrorists, the institute reports one positive trend.
“Although Burkina Faso remains the most affected country, both deaths and attacks declined, falling by 21% and 57% respectively, however the country is still responsible for a fifth of all terrorism deaths globally,” the institute says in its 2025 Global Terrorism Index issued in March.
The country hosts Endeavour’s Houndé and Mana gold mines, Iamgold’s Essakane, Orezone’s Bomboré, and West African Resources’ Sanbrado.
Uranium
Niger recorded the largest increase in terrorism deaths globally last year, nearly doubling to 930, reversing previous improvements from 2022 when it had the second-largest improvement, according to the terrorism index.
The landlocked country, the world’s seventh largest uranium producer, has attracted Global Atomic (TSX: GLO; US-OTC: GLATF) advancing the high-grade Dasa project and GoviEx Uranium (TSXV: GXU; US-OTC: GVXXF) with its Madaouela project.
“Niger highlights how fragile progress in reducing terrorism deaths can be,” the institute said, noting it could mean improvements in Burkina Faso are “transitory”.
“The Sahel remains the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of countries affected increasing,” according to the index.
Fuel crisis
Insurgents in Mali have declared a renewed economic war this year on the capital, Bamako, increasing attacks on fuel supplies trucked in from neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal so that diesel on the black market can sell for $7 a litre, Morrissey says. The fuel crisis triggered school closings and strained food supplies which instilled widespread fear.
“They’re blowing up the first bowser and they’re filming that and they’re putting it on social media, and then they’re hijacking the rest,” the analyst said. “That’s gas for them, and with the excess that they don’t need, they’re selling that into the black market and so you’ve got profiteering.”
And like drug dealers, they’re cutting the contraband with other liquid, probably water, so in extreme cases 600 litres of fuel becomes 1,000 litres of something that can’t be trusted and most likely can’t be used without draining, separating and filtering.
“To be fair to the government, they are running operations to try to bring fuel in securely, and I think they have brought in a few hundred tankers successfully,” Morrissey says. “But the propaganda war is being lost. And so there’s a public fever around this.”
Mali has reached new mining code agreements with Allied Gold (TSX: AAUC), B2Gold and Resolute Mining (ASX: RSG). But the junta seized the Loulo-Gounkoto complex from Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX; NYSE: B) after the miner insisted its long-standing conventions remained binding and filed for arbitration at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes.
China
Other issues to consider concern China’s growing presence in the region, the analyst says. The Asian giant’s quest for minerals across the region is still small compared with the number of Canadian and Australian companies, but it can be a commercial threat.
Following weeks of increasingly fraught talks with the Malian government over a new mining code and tax settlements, Leo Lithium sold its 40% stake in the Goulamina lithium project to Ganfeng Lithium in May 2024 for about $343 million. Leo had spent years and tens of millions of dollars helping advance the project from study stage into construction.
Whatever the project, a good relationship with locals is paramount for success, and security.
“The local inhabitants do not often distinguish between foreigners,” Morrissey said. “It means if one company creates local tensions then this will impact others who are unrelated and who appear at a later time. It can mean having a security peril that is far more potent than is first realized, and demands strong community engagement to identify and mitigate responsibly.”
Leaders leave
And political uncertainty can ultimately lead to regime change – at companies. Resolute CEO Terry Holohan departed after he was basically held hostage in Bamako for $160 million a year ago while the company’s market cap plunged by more than a third.
Authorities seized Barrick’s bullion and eventually its Loulo-Gounkoto mine, forcing the company to issue a $1-billion write-down of assets after a multi-year dispute over Mali’s mining code and some $440 million in taxes. It didn’t help CEO Mark Bristow’s position as the company missed profit targets and its share price performance trailed peers. He resigned in September.
Unrest can have more direct consequences. Progress Minerals Vice-President of Exploration Kirk Woodman was kidnapped and murdered in January 2019 in northern Burkina Faso. Progress merged with an Orca Gold (TSX: ORG)–owned company to form Montage Gold (TSX: MAU; US-OTC: MAUTF) eight months later.
In November 2019, gunmen attacked a convoy of five buses carrying workers to SEMAFO’s (Société d’Exploration Minière en Afrique de l’Ouest) Boungou gold mine in Burkina Faso, killing at least 37 people and injuring more than 60. The following July, Endeavour Mining completed a C$1-billion all-stock acquisition of SEMAFO.
“When companies have a security mishap where there’s fatalities, it’s very hard to survive as a business in the way that you knew,” Morrissey said. “Companies have to adjust their posture and be prepared to change and adapt to the security situation, they need to understand it’s a war zone.”
MS Risk CEO Liam Morrissey speaks about security on Nov. 21 at the Royal Canadian Military Institute in Toronto.
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