Restraint urged for molybdenum producers

Molybdenum producers in 1988 experienced a period of recovery, but Roskill cautions a degree of restraint by producers and a strong upward trend in demand will be crucial to the metal’s market success during the next few years.

The iron and steel industry, the major end-use for molybdenum, accounted for almost all of the increase in demand for the metal last year. Molybdenum is used mainly in the production of stainless and heat-resistant, tool and full alloy steels and in cast iron.

Stainless steel has increased in importance as an end-use for molybdenum the past two decades and the trend is expected to continue. Consumption of too l and full alloy steels is also increasing. Other applications, in catalysts and high performance alloys used by the aerospace industry, offer growth opportunities.

Early in the 1980s, tough times prevailed for niobium, but Roskill says the latter part of this decade has seen a period of consolidation and stability for the industry. The steel industry accounts for up to 85% of total consumption of niobium (in the form of ferro- niobium).

Demand for the metal is expected to continue growing, at a slower rate, during the 1990s, with the increased use of lighter metals in automobiles and for strengthening in construction applications. Much will depend on the extent to which steel is replaced by composite materials and other substitutes.

New end-uses for niobium, such as superconductors, are being developed but it is unlikely they will ever be able to compensate for any substantial drop in consumption by the steel industry.

The leading producer-nation, with about 75% of the non-communist world production of niobium materials, is Brazil, which also possesses more than 80% of current world reserves. Canada is also a producer of the metal.

Prices for tantalum have yet to recover from the mineral’s 1979-80 boom, Roskill reports.

This state of affairs arose in 1979 when tantalum processors, anticipating a substantial increase in demand for the mineral from the electronics industry and a consequent shortage of supply, greatly increased their purchases of raw materials.

Prices for tantalum pentoxide doubled to $120(US) per lb during the first half of 1980, but by the end of 1981 had fallen to $36-$40. With processors holding large inventories of raw materials, demand for tantalum pentoxide dwindled and prices drifted downward, to below $20 in 1986 and the first half of 1987. Demand recovered towards the end of 1987 and earlier this year prices in the $50 range were reported. The mineral has application in the superalloy and capacitor manufacturing industries.

Within the industry, it is feared a continuing upward trend in prices will lead to widespread substitution of other metals for tantalum in many of its end-uses, as was the case in 1979-80. In addition, rising prices may lead to the greater use of recycled tantalum, which already accounts for 10-20% of total supply. Further sharp increases during the rest of 1989 are not foreseen.

Buoyant demand for rhenium from the superalloy industry has boosted price tags for this rare metal, despite producers’ efforts to maintain a degree of stability, Roskill says.

However, the rhenium market has a history of such surges. In 1971, the price ran up to $1,200(US) per lb, but by mid-1978 had drifted down to $285. By the spring of 1980 the mineral was selling for $2,500, but in 1983 it found itself averaging $250. In early 1988, the price shot up, only to ease back later in the year. Now a renewed interest in rhenium-bearing superalloys has brought prices up again.

From Japan, Roskill is predicting a slowdown in growth for ultra- hard alloys after a positive year in 1988. The company reports production of ultra-hard tools in Japan increased by 25% in 1988, with consumption of rare metals for ultra- hard alloys rising by more than 10%. For example, strong growth occurred in consumption of tungsten metal powder, including tungsten carbide, in ultra-hard alloys. Production this year is expected to average 6%.

Japanese consumption of rare earths in magnets and fluorescent materials will remain firm this year, it is predicted. Samarium-cobalt magnets dominate the market (with a 70% share), with neodymium- iron-boron types making up the balance. Demand for fluorescent tubes, which contain yttrium and europium, is expected this year to exceed the 14% growth experienced in 1988.

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