Predictive, Robex reach $1.5B deal to create Guinea-focused gold miner

Australia’s Predictive Discovery (ASX: PDI) and Canada’s Robex Resources (CVE: RBX)(ASX: RXR) agreed to merge in an all-share deal worth A$2.35 billion ($1.55 billion) that would create a new Guinea-focused mid-tier gold producer. Shares of both companies rose.

Robex shareholders will receive 8.67 Predictive shares for each Robex share, giving them about 51% ownership of the combined company. The merger, announced jointly by the West Africa-focused developers, would bring two of the region’s most advanced gold projects under one roof.

“By combining two of West Africa’s largest and most advanced gold development projects and leveraging the proven track record of both management teams in Africa, we are creating a company that positions Guinea to become one of Africa’s top five gold producers,” Predictive chief executive officer Andrew Pardey said.

Robex CEO Matthew Wilcox will lead the merged company, while Pardey will serve as chair. 

The merger, which will go to a shareholder vote in December, will require approval from at least two-thirds of voting Robex investors. Robex’s board and major shareholders, Cohen Group and Eglinton Mining, have already pledged support.

Consolidation trend

The proposed deal continues a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the gold sector, fuelled by record metal prices and growing consolidation among mid-tier players.

The merger unites Predictive’s Bankan and Robex’s Kiniero gold projects, located just 30 km apart in Guinea. Combined, they are expected to produce more than 400,000 oz. of gold annually by 2029, supported by 9.5 million oz. in resources and 4.5 million oz. in reserves.

Robex, which listed on the ASX in June, plans to begin production at Kiniero in December. Revenues from that operation will help fund development of Bankan, whose owner is targeting a final investment decision by mid-2026. Robex also operates the smaller Nampala gold mine in Mali, which is expected to produce 47,000 oz. this year.

Shifting landscape

Guinea, better known for bauxite and iron ore deposits, is drawing fresh attention from gold explorers despite ongoing challenges from artisanal mining and recent regulatory crackdowns. In May, the government revoked more than 50 mining licences and exploration permits, affecting companies such Endeavour Mining, Resolute Mining, Arrow Minerals, Kebo Energy SA and Emirates Global Aluminium.

Canada’s Fortuna Mining (TSX: FVI) is among the new wave of miners looking at the country. Last week, the Vancouver-based explorer signed a joint venture agreement with Australia’s Desoto Resources (ASX: DES) to explore the Siguiri basin in northeastern Guinea.

Predictive shares jumped 9.1% to 48¢ in Australian trading Monday, boosting the company’s market capitalization to about A$1.3 billion. Robex rose 2.7% to $4.12 in morning trading in Toronto, giving it a market value of about C$902 million.