Operational complexity has replaced geopolitics as mining’s top business risk in professional services firm EY’s 2026 ranking, as miners struggle to lift output from deeper, more scattered and less predictable ore bodies while costs keep rising.
EY’s ranking is based on a June and July 2025 survey of 500 senior mining and metals leaders at companies with at least $1 billion (C$1.4 billion) in revenue. Rising costs and productivity ranked second, capital placed third and geopolitics slipped to seventh, even as tariffs and export controls kept reshaping trade flows. Artificial intelligence had moved to the top of miners’ investment agenda under EY’s rank eight risk, digital and innovation, as companies looked for gains in productivity and predictability.
“It’s harder to just have a material flow without hiccups because either the operation is complex or it’s not predictable,” Theo Yameogo, EY Americas Metals & Mining Leader, told The Northern Miner during a Toronto industry event last month. “That’s why it’s actually number one.”
Capital is moving first to mergers, joint ventures and brownfield expansions because they can add reserves faster than greenfield discoveries can be found, permitted and built. In that setting, steadier output, tighter cost control and practical AI use matter more to investors than another swing in the geopolitical mood.
Watch the full interview below:
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