Opinion: The US reclaims its exploration roots

No doubt we are sitting within a phase of geopolitical spotlighting on minerals that involves Donald Trump, China, tariffs, ending the war in Ukraine, Greenland and Russia. 

This is the year of headlines, or more aptly, the year for critical mineral headlines. This group of obscure commodities has risen from the back of a geeky science textbook to the hottest thing across markets in 2025.

It has been the big-ticket item that has threaded together some of the biggest headlines this year, like the war in Ukraine.

You might recall that earlier in the year, the U.S. and Ukraine were discussing a minerals-for-military-aid deal that would hand Ukraine’s seemingly vast supplies of rare earths to the U.S. economy. In theory, it would solve America’s reliance on China for this critical group of commodities. In return, the U.S. would hand Ukraine vast military aid. A win-win deal. 

But as it turns out, an old USGS report highlighted that Ukraine is an important supplier of things like ilmenite, iron ore, graphite, kaolin, manganese and magnesium. But not the headline grabbing rare earths. 

Excitement waned and the deal was put on ice. Ukraine’s vast supply of rare earths was far smaller than media had ‘imagined.’

Nevertheless, it put another major spotlight on critical minerals in 2025. As has China, a country that has flirted with its ability to “weaponize” the dominance of its critical mineral processing.

And that reached an inflection point last April after the Asian superpower hit back against U.S. tariffs by imposing rare earth export restrictions. Clearly, the U.S. is concerned. But other than oil, most raw materials haven’t been on America’s national security agenda for a long time.

Rapid changes

The U.S. is not usually an economy associated with the business of extracting raw materials. It holds the world’s most advanced financialized economy, so, traditionally, hasn’t been concerned with the dirty business of mining and has relegated mining and mineral processing to offshore lands.

Yet attitudes are shifting. Tech is putting far more attention on its vulnerable raw material supply chains as are U.S. manufacturers. 

Bezos and Gates have partnered with mining ventures like KoBold Metals. The U.S. government is pouring billions into upgrading the Lobito Corridor in Angola to secure access to Africa’s copper mines. 

These efforts have crossed the Red and Blue political divide in America. All of America is united on one thing: it needs to secure its supply chain of raw materials.

Through decades of unencumbered supply America has paid little attention to the “old economy,” that is, mineral extraction and processing. That laisser-faire attitude is shifting. U.S. manufacturers are anxious and American politicians are keen to make deals.

Can investors benefit?

No doubt, the U.S. government has placed mineral supply as a key priority.

But decades of mine closures, underinvestment in new mine developments and offshoring mineral processing ensures the U.S. will remain reliant on foreign mineral supplies for many years to come. That’s why its politicians are looking to allies with established mining capability like Canada and Australia.

Yet, nothing beats a home-grown project. And that probably explains why exploration activity is surging within the U.S. 

Mineral self-sufficiency won’t come quickly or easily for America. But it is at least trying to get the ball rolling by kick-starting its exploration sector back to life.

According to a report by S&P Global (emphasis added): 

Exploration in the US grew faster than the global average for almost a decade, fueled by major and junior companies’ increased interests, initially for gold and, more recently, other metals deemed critical, such as copper and lithium.

And this:

The U.S. remains the third most explored country in 2023, distantly following Canada and Australia. During 2017–23, the U.S. share of global exploration climbed to 13% from 8% in 2017.

No doubt there is a political will to increase America’s minerals supply chain resilience. Given the lack of existing mine development that can only start with exploration. 

According to S&P Global, copper exploration (in particular) has seen a major uptick in the U.S., up 67% since 2020. The surge in exploration activity has been felt most across the states of Nevada, Arizona, Alaska and Idaho. 

Home-grown investment angle

Obviously, home-grown projects will be favoured the most. For one, U.S. domiciled mining projects skirt future tariff risks. Yet they’re also more likely to access generous U.S. government grants and offtake agreements with local manufacturers who, themselves, are looking to avoid higher import costs of raw materials, associated with tariffs.  

Junior mining stocks with projects sitting on U.S. soil could hold a key advantage in the years to come. These tailwinds mean that junior mining stocks domiciled within the U.S. could reach production faster versus rival companies with projects domiciled outside of the U.S. And that opportunity extends across the full life cycle of mining, from early stage ‘grassroots’ explorers to late-stage feasibility, projects. 

U.S. junior mining could be the key market to watch if the resurgence in commodities continues. Stay tuned. 

James Cooper is a geologist based in Australia who runs the commodities investment service Diggers and Drillers. You can also follow him on X @JCooperGeo.