New hope from old regime in CAR?

With all of the unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and Côte d’Ivoire, Africa could use a story of peaceful politics more now than ever.

And while no violence has erupted around the recent elections in the Central African Republic (CAR), there are still questions as to whether the re-elected President Francois Bozize will be able to usher in a new era of prosperity in the mineral-rich country. 

Boding well for the country is the fact that Bozize won by such a wide margin. With 66% of the vote, Bozize’s support more than tripled his closest rival, former president Ange-Félix Patassé, who secured roughly 20% of the vote.

Such a wide margin means that while the three main opposition candidates unanimously denounce the election process, and say they do not recognize the results, their arguments lack the vigour they would have had if the results were closer.

For now it is clear that the possibility of a close election causing the country to crumble into chaotic uncertainty has been largely avoided.

But CAR isn’t out of the woods yet. The three losing candidates are launching a formal complaint, albeit one that experts expect to fall flat. 

“Even before the announcement of the winner, the opposition said it rejected the results and would go to court,” Thierry Vircoulon, International Crisis Group’s Central Africa director, says. “The case will be dismissed, of course, and Bozize will be re-elected.”

But even with a court endorsement and seemingly widespread support, Bozize will have to play reconciler with the opposition if he hopes to usher in a new era of peace and prosperity for the impoverished country.

One key development to watch for is how he deals with one opposition leader in particular – Jean-Jacques Démafouth.

While Démafouth didn’t have a strong showing in the election – he finished fourth with 2.7% of the vote – as leader of APRD or People’s Army for the Restoration of Democracy, he has control over a significant rebel force in the northwestern region of the country.

Vircoulon says a worse case scenario for the country would see Démafouth, along with the other opposition leaders, lead factions of the country back into an “active rebellion.”

He describes the situation in the country over the past year and a half as being in a state of “passive rebellion.” Passive because while tensions between rebels and the central government persisted, they were largely quelled by diplomatic moves on Bozize’s part.

To ensure that the country doesn’t slip back into a state of active rebellion, Bozize will have to continue to make such overtures to the opposition. One move analysts expect from Bozize is to make Démafouth an offer to take an important role in his government. If he accepts, and Patassé and another opposition leader Martin Ziguélé, come to recognize the government, the table for greater stability would be set.

As for media reports that the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) continues to be a serious threat in the country, Crisis Group’s Vircoulon says such a threat has been largely overstated.

“The LRA did not disturb the election,” he points out. “They are really just another medium group doing bad things far away in the bush.”

The group is active in the far eastern portion of the country where CAR borders the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the south and Sudan to the north.

The election results have yet to have any significant impact on Toronto-based Axmin‘s (AXM-V) share price.

The company is currently looking to finance the construction of its 205,000-gold-oz.-per-year Passendro gold mine which sits in the south central part of the country, 60 km north of the town of Bambari. The region is considered to be safely under government control.

Last August Axmin announced it had come to terms with the government for a 25-year mining licence. As part of the deal, Bozize’s government secured a signing bonus of $11 million and 26 million Axmin shares along with 20 million warrants with a strike price of 30¢.

The deal also saw Axmin secure a five-year tax holiday after which it will pay the standard corporate tax rate of 30%.

Axmin shares have traded between 22¢ and 17¢ from the time that voters first went to the polls until election results were announced on Feb. 3.