Mosaic cuts 2025 phosphate forecast

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), the largest U.S. producer of phosphate fertilizers, has lowered its full-year 2025 production guidance as it navigates operational challenges across key plants.

The revision weighed on its shares, which slipped 4.4% to close at $34.80 apiece in New York on Friday, valuing the company at $11 billion. 

Mosaic now expects to produce between 7 million and 7.3 million tonnes of phosphate this year, down from its previous guidance of 7.2 million to 7.6 million tonnes. Second-quarter phosphate sales volumes have also been scaled back to 1.5 million to 1.6 million tonnes, compared to the earlier forecast of 1.7 million to 1.9 million tonnes.

Despite the production setback, Mosaic raised its pricing outlook for diammonium phosphate (DAP) to $650–$670 per tonne, citing strong market conditions. This marks an increase from the prior forecast of $635–$655 per tonne.

Florida operations

The company said its Bartow phosphate facility in Florida is operating at its target rate and is expected to deliver over 500,000 tonnes in the second quarter, consistent with an annual run rate exceeding 2 million tonnes.

However, at its New Wales facility 65 km east of Tampa, commissioning delays for new gypsum handling systems continue to limit output. Although production at New Wales is set to rise more than 20% from the first quarter, Mosaic noted that ramp-up of the first of three new systems took longer than planned. Installation of the remaining systems is expected to wrap up by early July, potentially boosting the site’s run rate to 3 million tonnes annually.

Bottlenecks

Elsewhere, the Riverview facility 19 km southeast of Tampa underperformed due to extended downtime aimed at resolving bottlenecks. Mosaic anticipates the plant will reach a run rate equivalent to 1.6 million tonnes annually in the third quarter.

In Louisiana, routine maintenance revealed additional repair needs, resulting in prolonged outages and lost output. In the third quarter, Louisiana is expected to perform at its target annual run rate of 1.4 million tonnes.

Mosaic’s potash business remains on track, with no changes to its guidance. The company continues to target second-quarter sales of 2.3 million to 2.5 million tonnes and full-year production of 9 million to 9.4 million tonnes.