Mining Forum Americas: Fresh money pours in, but permits will decide where it sticks

Colorado Springs, Colo. – New capital is flooding back into miners, led by generalist funds and crypto-adjacent investors, but industry analysts and fund managers say it will stick only with companies that can turn permits into construction.

Evidence of new money was visible in attendance at this month’s Mining Forum Americas, which rose by about 40% year over year, according to event organizer Tim Wood, executive director of the Denver Gold Group. The higher turnout improved the buy-side-to-company ratio, Wood said, while the combined market capitalization of presenting companies reached about $869.8 billion (C$1.2 trillion) during the conference. That total topped the prior peak set in 2011 despite fewer issuers being on the roster, according to Wood’s data.

“Investors are up and you’re not seeing the bad deals we saw a decade ago,” Wood told The Northern Miner, referring to an era when miners chose volume growth over quality. “Companies are staying restrained,” he added, noting that transactions are “starting to break loose” at premiums without stretching balance sheets.

Fresh allocations are also arriving from new corners. Several observers highlighted buying by stablecoin operators and crypto-linked treasuries such as Tether into bullion, royalties and juniors. Flows into large gold-equity funds have flipped from steady year-to-date outflows to consistent net inflows since late August, a shift Adrian Day, CEO of Puerto Rico-based Adrian Day Asset Management, reads as “ordinary investors and generalists re-engaging” via the big ETFs.

“It’s bringing fresh eyeballs to the sector,” Day said, adding that large royalty and streaming names remain a low-risk on-ramp for newcomers while warning company boards not to lean on financial engineering. “Returns should come from operations and disciplined growth, not buybacks.”

Market euphoria?

Forum speakers stopped short of calling a top. Wood noted the emergence of the first $100-billion gold stock, Zijin Mining Group (HKG: 2899) — which climbed past the threshold this month, making it the third-largest miner globally — with Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM; NYSE: AEM) and Newmont (NYSE: NEM) “chasing hard.” He framed the move as a re-rating back to “more sensible levels” after near-historic lows in recent years.

Taking a contrarian view, CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian sees the influx of new investors as a sign of euphoria. “The new money looks frothy,” he said. “A lot of people coming in are basically momentum investors.” The advance sits within a longer “secular upward trend” driven by political, economic and financial uncertainty, Christian said, while acknowledging that short-term momentum money is adding volatility at the margin.

CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian. Credit: Henry Lazenby

Meanwhile, price discovery in gold has shifted toward Asian trading hours, Amsterdam-based founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund, Willem Middelkoop said in an interview. It means the largest, market-setting moves in gold – where the marginal bid/offer establishes the new price – are increasingly occurring during Shanghai, Singapore and Hong Kong exchange trading hours, rather than in traditional markets of London and New York, reflecting heavier Asian physical and futures buying.

Silver’s small market could see outsized moves if it clears its prior highs, he said.

Crypto capital

The crypto-adjacent interest is a “significant” development, Middelkoop said in an interview. Large stablecoin treasuries are diversifying profits into gold exposure alongside physical holdings.

“The crypto space has grown so large” that stablecoins “need to back their currencies,” he said. They’re “buying into gold companies now and buying physical gold. In the end, they all discover gold is the last man standing.”

While the majors have preached capital discipline through the price up-cycle, industry insiders said the new investors are looking for for near-term growth from miners that can clear approvals and reach first production on realistic schedules. Royalty and streaming financing is being used to bridge advanced projects with line-of-sight to construction, Day said. Private credit funds are also stepping into gaps left by conservative lenders, often with tighter covenants and milestone-driven draws.

The tone in company presentations and one-on-ones has shifted toward building, with producers and developers focusing on mine-adjacent drilling and takeouts of long-drilled development assets that are “waiting for a partner,” said Neil Adshead, director at Cupel Advisory. “Mine ramp-up execution and capital cost creep remain the chief risks to watch even with higher commodity prices,” he cautioned.

Permitting bottleneck

Despite renewed appetite, permitting remains the single biggest brake on new supply, Wood said. Recent United States cases in which federal agencies accelerated reviews as part of a broader reshoring of mining, refining and processing capacity stood in contrast to most other jurisdictions.

“Where timelines are clearer and agencies are resourced, projects are moving,” he said. “Where clocks are opaque, capital is hesitant.”

Investors are prioritizing developers with transparent approval paths, secured or de-risked grid power and water and tailings designs that meet higher standards without rework, the analysts said. Feasibility studies that lock down baseline data, show staged footprints and set out critical-path decisions are drawing the closest looks, particularly for copper and uranium projects tied to grid expansion and data-centre growth.

New standards being prepared by the World Gold Council to harmonize approaches to ESG, social licence and sovereign issues across juniors and seniors could further help reopen parts of Latin America and Africa. In Wood’s view, responsible operators have often been “squeezed out.” Consistent standards may blunt the pattern in which well-capitalized miners exit and “unscrupulous actors” move in, he suggested.

For now, analysts agree that although the chequebook is open, investors are choosy. Companies that can articulate and keep to credible permit paths aligned with power access and early community benefits are first in line for the new money. Those that cannot may find that today’s inflows are fleeting.