Lundin Mining lifts copper outlook after strong 2025

Canada’s Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN) beat its 2025 copper guidance and forecast higher output in 2026 as strong performance at its Chilean operations, led by Caserones, continued to drive results.

The miner said fourth-quarter production exceeded 87,000 tonnes of copper and more than 34,000 oz. of gold, capping a year in which consolidated copper output surpassed original guidance and landed within the company’s revised full-year range.

Caserones was a standout, producing more than 15,000 tonnes of copper in December, its best monthly result since Lundin took ownership in 2023, and finishing the year at 132,881 tonnes, above initial expectations.

President and CEO Jack Lundin said the company’s near- and medium-term outlook remains intact, with mine sequencing changes expected to lift copper production by a net 15,000 tonnes across 2026 and 2027. Those changes are forecast to add about 20,000 tonnes in 2027, partly offset by a 5,000-tonne midpoint adjustment in 2026.

Candelaria, also in Chile, produced 145,471 tonnes of copper in 2025, supported by higher mill throughput linked to softer ore. Across its three Latin American operations, the company said operating performance remained strong throughout the year.

“Candelaria was slightly low versus expectations while Caserones beat [expectations]…ending the year on a high note,” Murphy said. 

Top-10 ambitions

For 2026, Lundin expects consolidated copper production of 310,000 to 335,000 tonnes and gold output of 134,000 to 149,000 oz., with cash costs between $1.90 and $2.10 per pound. Copper production is forecast to rise to 315,000 to 340,000 tonnes in 2027 before easing to 290,000 to 315,000 tonnes in 2028.

Initial guidance for 2028 of 290-315,000 tonnes of copper is “light” compared to BMO’s forecast of 328,000 tonnes and consensus of 332,000 tonnes,  BMO’s Murphy said. Gold guidance for 2028 of 132,000 to 147,000 oz. is below BMO’s 160,000 oz. and consensus of 170,000 ounces.

Capital spending will remain elevated as Lundin pushes growth projects forward. Sustaining capital expenditures are projected at $550 million in 2026, while expansionary capital spending is expected to reach $445 million. Exploration spending is forecast at $53 million, focused mainly on in-mine and near-mine targets.

Lundin aims to become one of the world’s top 10 copper producers, targeting annual red metal production of about 500,000 tonnes and roughly 550,000 oz. of gold within two to four years.

The plan centres on brownfield expansions at Candelaria and Caserones in Chile and Chapada in Brazil, alongside new developments in the Vicuña district on the Chile – Argentina border, including the Josemaría and Filo del Sol projects.