JPMorgan sees $4,000 gold price in a year

JPMorgan sees gold prices hitting the $4,000-per-oz. milestone by the second quarter of 2026 as the probability of a recession rises amid an ongoing global trade war.

“Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000 per oz. next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year,” the bank wrote in a note Tuesday.

Before reaching that milestone, JPMorgan analysts expect gold prices to average $3,675 per oz. by this year’s fourth quarter. The bank added that there is a possibility of an earlier overshoot of these forecasts should demand surpass its expectations.

JPMorgan’s bullish forecast came on the same day that spot gold touched the $3,500/oz. mark for the first time as investors sought safety in the metal amid uncertainty over the U.S. economy and its currency. Since then, gold’s rally has taken a breather. By 10:45 a.m. ET Wednesday, the yellow metal declined 3% to $3,285.28 per oz., as the equities market recovered after U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on tariffs.

All-time highs

Still, bullion has gained nearly 30% so far this year — making it one of the best performing assets — while recording as many as 28 all-time highs along the way.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs also placed a $4,000 per oz. target for next year, while upgrading its end-2025 price forecast to $3,700 per ounce. The bank also noted that in “extreme tail scenarios” — a highly unlikely but potentially catastrophic event, one that lies far out on the “tail” of a probability distribution of possible outcomes — bullion could plausibly trade near $4,500 per oz. by year end.

In its note, JPMorgan also presented a bearish case where an unexpected drop off in central bank demand occurs.

“More materially bearish would be a scenario where US economic growth remains extremely resilient to tariffs allowing the Fed to turn much more proactive in fighting inflation risks, prompting markets to price in hikes even before worrying inflation actually arrives,” its analysts wrote.