Ivanhoe slashes 2025 copper guidance by 28%

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN; US-OTC: IVPAF) says it has restarted the western portion of the Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo after floods closed it a month ago. 

With the mining restart, Ivanhoe presented on Wednesday a new 2025 production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula complex: between 370,000 and 420,000 tonnes of copper in concentrates. This forecast, based on the midpoint of its guidance range, represents a 28% decrease over the company’s prior guidance (between 520,000 and 580,000 tonnes) set in January.

In addition, management has also withdrawn its 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tonnes of copper production, pending further review

“While it’s still too early to outline our detailed plans for 2026 and 2027, the future remains bright across the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex,” executive co-chair Robert Friedland said in a news release.

With the downward guidance, shares of Ivanhoe fell 5.9% at $10.86 apiece at Wednesday’s close, taking its market capitalization to $14.6 billion. 

The underground mine, part of the company’s larger Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the DRC, was forced to shut down on May 18 due to severe flooding that resulted from seismic activity in the region. The complex is Africa’s largest copper-producing operation, with majority ownership split between Ivanhoe and China’s Zijin Mining at 39.6% each, while the DRC government holds a 20% stake.

Water pumping

On Wednesday, Ivanhoe confirmed that the western section of the Kakula returned to operations “in a safe and conservative manner” on June 7 after the flooding had stabilized following the installation of additional water pumping capacity.

Mining activities in the eastern side are also expected to start imminently, focused solely on developing access drives to a new mining area east of the existing mine workings, it added.

“We are thankful and deeply appreciate our team’s swift response to stabilize underground water levels in the Kakula mine and resume mining on the western side,” Friedland said.

“The team has quickly secured the critical equipment needed to safely dewater the entirety of the mine, while preparing to access a new high-grade mining area in the east.”

Despite conflicted reports over the potential damage by Ivanhoe and its joint venture partner Zijin, industry analysts had said the mine should be able to resume once the necessary dewatering and remediation efforts are completed.

Revised guidance

According to Ivanhoe, the guidance was revised down due to the probable effect of recent seismic activity and associated interruptions in operations at the Kakula mine. It also highlighted several risk factors that were taken into consideration, such as further seismic activity and infrastructure breakdown.

As previously disclosed, the Phase 1 and 2 concentrators at Kakula are still operating at approximately 50% of their combined operating capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles. The processing rate of the concentrators is expected to ramp up throughout the remainder of 2025, as mining from the western side of the mine increases, Ivanhoe said.

Meanwhile, mining operations at the Kamoa underground mine, as well as ore processing at the adjacent Phase 3 concentrator, continue to outperform, it added.

With the necessary copper concentrate expected to be available, the on-site smelter is anticipated to start up in September, with first production expected in October 2025.