Ivanhoe defers Kamoa-Kakula copper forecast

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) (US-OTC: IVPAF) says it has begun the second stage of its Kakula mine dewatering plan, but will delay its copper production forecast for the next two years until that has advanced.

In the near term, the ramp-up of underground mining activities should return the production rate to more than 550,000 tonnes per year, the company said on Thursday.

Production guidance for 2026-2027, however, will be deferred until sufficient physical inspection of the newly dewatered areas of the Kakula mine has been completed, the company said in a news release. Management previously said it would issue the 2026 and 2027 outlooks and a new life-of-mine plan by mid-September.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Andrew Mikitchook said in a note this timeline would allow technical staff “sufficient time to develop a comprehensive guidance.” Ivanhoe’s “goal is to return Kamoa-Kakula to similar throughputs as previously planned by 2027,” the analyst said in a prior note. 

Ivanhoe’s stock price fell 6.5% to on Thursday to C$12.71 apiece before regaining 4% to $3.21 on Friday morning in Toronto for a market capitalization to C$17.6 billion.

Pumps installed

Three out of the four stage two high-capacity, submersible pumps were recently installed and commissioned on schedule, the company said. The underground water level in the Kakula mine has since dropped by about 10 metres out of a possible 80 metres.

The Vancouver-based miner also said it expects all four pumps to start operating in the coming days at a combined pumping rate of approximately 2,600 litres per second. At that point, it will reposition the existing stage one temporary pumping infrastructure further down the mine, following the water level as it declines.

Ivanhoe estimates that the total pumping rate out of the Kakula mine is expected to increase up to a target of approximately 6,400 litres per second, or 550 megalitres per day, reducing the vertical underground water level by about one metre per day.

At this rate, the underground water level is expected to reach near the bottom of the stage two dewatering shafts by the end of November, providing further access to the mine’s high-grade areas.

Seismic impact

The Kakula mine, part of the larger Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, was shut down for about three weeks earlier this year after seismic activity caused severe flooding underground.

Following the suspension, Ivanhoe’s management team revised down its 2025 production forecast by 28% to between 370,000 and 420,000 tonnes of copper in concentrates, while it implements a three-stage drainage plan to restore full operations.

The final stage of dewatering activities is to start late this year, involving the use of existing horizontal pumping infrastructure to drain the remaining areas deep on the eastern side. As water levels subside, rehabilitation will start as required, the company said.