Ivanhoe advances ‘world’s best copper development’ at Kamoa-Kakula

It would not be a stretch to suggest Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN; US-OTC: IVPAF) executive co-chairman Robert Friedland is probably the world’s best mining promoter.

The Friedland legend started to take root when he carefully choreographed a bidding war between former Canadian base metals titans Inco and Falconbridge for the considerable Voisey’s Bay nickel-copper-cobalt deposit in Labrador.

When the froth finally settled in April 1996, Friedland’s company, Diamond Fields Resources (originally a tiny diamond explorer) had been sold to Inco for $4.3 billion.

Fast-forward to 2012, and after eight long years of drilling countless low-grade, copper-gold targets in the Gobi Desert, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO; ASX: RIO) acquired 51% of Ivanhoe Mines, version 1.0, which would later become Turquoise Hill Resources (TSX: TRQ; NYSE: TRQ), 66%-owner of the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold deposit in Mongolia (the Mongolian government owned the rest). Rio Tinto’s total acquisition cost was more than US$4.1 billion.

And the legend grew, as Friedland went two for two.

These days, Friedland’s Ivanhoe Mines, version 2.0, is back in the copper business and looking to hit yet another home run with the world-class Kamoa-Kakula copper project, 25 km west of Kolwezi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

The project is the first major copper discovery in the region in decades, and marks the first time Friedland is willing to settle for second — as in what should eventually become the world’s the second-largest copper mine, after Chile’s Escondida.

Ivanhoe owns 39.6% of Kamoa-Kakula, Chinese mining powerhouse Zijin Mining Group owns 39.6% and Crystal River Global holds 0.8%. The DRC government carries the remaining 20%.

Hong Kong-based Crystal River is controlled by So Hon Chun, a former executive with the Citic Group — essentially an arm of the Chinese Ministry of Finance — which has worked with Friedland since the early development of Oyu Tolgoi.

In April, Citic Metal, a subsidiary of HKSE-listed Citic Ltd., which has US$1 trillion in assets, spent $612 million to buy 154 million shares of Ivanhoe at $3.98 each. The investment, combined with an almost identical investment made by Citic in September 2018, brings Citic Metal’s stake in Ivanhoe to almost 30%.

“Citic Metal has been a shareholder in Ivanhoe Mines for eight months now, and in that time, Citic has seen what we already know — that the Kamoa-Kakula Project is unquestionably the best copper-development project in the world,” Friedland said in a release.

Since the infusion, Ivanhoe has had US$1 billion in cash — well in excess of the US$540 million shares of US$1.1 billion needed to bring Kakula into production, at an initial rate of 6 million tonnes per year from underground.

At a 1% copper cut-off, the Kamoa-Kakula project hosts an indicated resource of 1.39 billion tonnes grading 2.64% copper for 80.6 billion contained lb. copper. The inferred resource has 316 million tonnes grading 1.76% copper for 12.2 billion contained lb. copper.

A prefeasibility study on the proposed Kakula mine, published in February, says the project would yield a 47% internal rate of return over a 25-year mine life. Using an 8% discount rate, the after-tax net present value was calculated at US$5.4 billion.

During the first stage of development, copper grades would average 6.8% at cash costs of US43¢ per pound. Cash costs would rise to US$1.11 per lb. during the first 10 years of production.

Meanwhile, a preliminary economic assessment, published at the same time as the prefeasibility study, suggests two more mines — Kansoko and Kakula West — could each produce another 6 million tonnes annually within five years, with the ore delivered to an on-site, direct-to-blister smelter paid for with internal cash flows.

Earlier this year, 18 km north of Ivanhoe’s Kakula deposit, and 8 km north of Kansoko, Ivanhoe found a bonanza-grade copper mineralization zone on its Kamoa-Kakula mining licence.

It has since been dubbed the Kamoa North Bonanza zone, after drill hole 1450 returned 13.05% copper over 22 metres.

In May, Ivanhoe released assay results from 10 holes, and announced that drilling had extended the zone 350 metres along strike, at up to 60 metres across.

Drill hole 1486 cut 17 metres of 15.84% copper starting 215 metres downhole; hole 1497 returned 14 metres of 18.48% copper, starting at 208 metres downhole; and hole 1504 found 21 metres running 13.32% copper from 211 metres downhole.

Ivanhoe says that the east- to west-trending growth structure, which could control the deposit, traces up to 20 km in aeromagnetic data across the western side of the Kamoa-Kakula mining licence, and onto Ivanhoe’s Western Foreland exploration licences, where the company recently made its third major discovery: Makoko.

The discovery at Makoko intersected 4 metres of 5.46% copper at a 2% copper cut-off from a downhole depth of 306 metres.

Meanwhile, hole 10 included 3 metres of 6.78% copper at a 2% copper cut-off from 441 metres downhole, and hole 17 hit 3 metres of 6.49% copper at the same cut-off grade, at 472 metres downhole.

The DRC is the world’s fifth-largest copper producer and hosts four of the top-five, high-grade copper deposits. The fourth-largest deposit by grade is across the border in Zambia.

Since acquiring a 68% stake in the Kipushi zinc-copper-silver-germanium mine near the DRC-Zambia border in 2011, Ivanhoe has invested $1.4 billion in its different DRC mining projects, including the refurbishment of the past-producing Kipushi mine.

The other 32% ownership stake in Kipushi is held by the DRC’s state-owned mining company, Gécamines.

The zinc-rich mineral resource at Kipushi tallies to 11.8 million measured and indicated tonnes running 35.34% zinc for 9.2 billion contained lb. zinc, 8.7 million oz. silver and 24.4 million oz. germanium. Meanwhile, the copper-rich resource is 2.3 million tonnes grading 4.03% copper.

The resource will be included in an upcoming definitive feasibility study due later this year, or early in 2020.

Ten years ago, production of the red metal in the DRC fell to 50,000 tonnes annually, down from a previous peak of 500,000 tonnes, mostly owing to warring factions and civil unrest.

Copper production in the DRC is well above 1 million tonnes annually, with more to come.

Louis Watum, managing director of the Ivanhoe’s operations in the DRC, says the country has mostly moved beyond its recent bouts of unrest.

“I keep saying to people who want to invest in the DRC: prospective investors must do their homework and understand the country, how it works,” Watum said, during a recent DRC Mining Week webinar.

“I do not see the DRC going back to war, or where really everything will break down. We have recovered from a very bloody and costly war, and there is no more appetite to fund any war, per se. We might have sporadic pockets of insecurity, but generally, the mining districts are very safe to invest in,” Watum added.

Meanwhile, the DRC is developing a new mining code that could impact companies by raising royalties and taxes on foreign companies operating mines in the country.

In January 2018, initial speculation regarding the new mining code shaved 15% from Ivanhoe’s share price. Any changes in the mining code have yet to be made public.

In South Africa, Ivanhoe is developing the Platreef palladium-platinum-nickel-copper-gold-rhodium discovery in South Africa  at a 780-metre depth.

The orebody is 29 metres thick at Shaft 1. Sinking will continue to 982 metres. The Platreef mining team delivered the first ore from the underground mine development to surface stockpiles for metallurgical sampling.

Surface construction for Platreef’s Shaft 2 continues. Construction now focuses on the concrete hitch for the headframe, which could be ready by mid-2019.

Shaft 2 will be equipped with two 40-tonne, rock-hoisting skips, with a capacity to hoist 6 million tonnes of ore per year — the largest hoisting capacity at any mine in Africa.

A definitive feasibility study published in July 2017 said that the Platreef mine would produce platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold at cash costs of $351 per oz., net of by-products, including sustaining capital costs.

In a research note dated May 21, 2019, BMO metals and mining analyst Andrew Mikitchook had a 12-month target price on Ivanhoe of $9.

At press time, Ivanhoe traded at $3.46, in a 52-week range of $2 to $3.62. The company’s market capitalization is $3.52 billion.

 

— Brian Sylvester is a freelance business writer based in Toronto.