Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge gains key permit, but legal and political risks loom

The United States’ Bureau of Land Management (BLM) on Thursday approved Ioneer’s (ASX: INR) Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in southwest Nevada, opening the door for closing US$1.19 billion in funding.

Ioneer can now access a US$700 million loan from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and a US$490 million equity investment from Sibanye Stillwater (JSE: SSW; NYSE: SBSW) for Rhyolite Ridge that has an estimated life of 22 years. The Sydney, Australia-based Ioneer aims to finalize its financing agreements for the US$785 million project before year-end. However, legal battles, regulatory adjustments, and political uncertainty remain obstacles as the company pushes toward construction, CEO Bernard Rowe said on a late Thursday webcast.

“Legal challenges are almost inevitable,” he told investors, referring to lawsuits that environmental groups are expected to file over the mine’s impact on Tiehm’s buckwheat, an endangered plant found only at the project site, located about 362 km north of Las Vegas.

The plant’s presence forced Ioneer to redesign parts of the mine, creating buffer zones and a greenhouse propagation program. Rowe remains confident that regulatory efforts will hold up under scrutiny. “We are well-prepared, and we’ve built a solid scientific case around our environmental work,” he said.

Following six years of regulatory scrutiny, Rhyolite Ridge is the first lithium mine approved under the Biden administration. It reflects Washington’s push to secure domestic sources of critical minerals. The project also marks the first new lithium production in the U.S. in over 60 years and the first boron mine in over a century, Rowe said. The operation will produce lithium carbonate and boric acid on-site, with the large chemical processing plant just a few kilometres from the mine.

Ioneer shares briefly spiked 9% to A30.5¢ on Friday, a fresh 12-month high for the company, giving it a market capitalization of A$651 million. Shares come off a period low at A10.5¢.

With the U.S. federal election approaching, investors pressed management for their take on the potentially shifting political landscape. Still, Rowe dismissed the idea that a new administration could derail the project.

“There is strong bipartisan support for developing critical minerals in the U.S.,” he said. “We’ve worked with both Republican and Democratic administrations, and the project has broad backing at the state and federal levels.”

Once operational, the mine will rival Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) and Lithium Americas (TSX: LAC; NYSE: LAC) as a top domestic producer. Albemarle operates the only active domestic lithium mine in Silver Peak, Nevada, and Lithium Americas is developing the Thacker Pass project, like Rhyolite Ridge another lithium clay site in Nevada.

Liquidity questioned

The DOE loan and Sibanye-Stillwater’s equity investment hinge on completing updates to the mine plan, reserve estimates, and project economics. Rowe stressed the importance of staying on schedule to avoid setbacks. “Permitting was the biggest hurdle, but we’re on track to close financing in the next few weeks.”

BMO Capital Markets mining analyst Raj Ray noted liquidity risks for Sibanye-Stillwater. It is set to invest US$490 million in five equal tranches over 12 months. While the federal permit approval marks a positive step, Ray cautioned that Sibanye’s ability to meet its financial commitments remains uncertain.

Sibanye has net debt of US$1.01 billion. It faces rising costs at Rhyolite Ridge and potential legal issues from a dispute with Appian, which could further strain liquidity. Earlier this month, Appian Capital, a London-based investment firm, won a U.K. court ruling forcing Sibanye to pay for terminating a US$1.2 billion deal to acquire two Brazilian mines. The damages have not yet been determined.

“The 2020 DFS capex estimate of US$785 million is stale (we currently model capex of US$1.1 billion) and capex escalation beyond this sum is likely,” Ray said Friday in a note to cleints. “However, between the DOE conditional loan and Sibanye’s investment, the project could potentially be fully funded.”

Ray said it remained to be seen how Sibanye manages its liquidity position over the next 12 months.

Boron kicker

Construction, scheduled to start early next year, will take about 30 months, putting the project on course for production in 2028.

The Rhyolite Ridge mine will run for 22 years. It will produce 22,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year. That’s enough to power 370,000 electric vehicles. It will also produce 170,000 tonnes of boric acid, according to the company.

The boron contributes 30% to 40% of the mine’s revenue, providing a buffer against lithium market volatility.

An April 2020 definitive feasibility study on the project pegged the after-tax net present value (8% discount) at US$1.3 billion and the internal rate of return at 20.8%.

Rowe said that boric acid has had stable prices for decades, which helps balance the fluctuations in lithium prices. “We designed the process around known technologies, borrowing methods from copper leaching. This project will be a cornerstone for the U.S. critical minerals supply chain.”

While confident in the path forward, Rowe stressed the importance of timely execution. “We have to make the final investment decision early next year, finalize contracts, and place long-lead orders,” he said. “We’re already gearing up, but delays could jeopardize our momentum.”

Ioneer expects the project to generate US$125 million in annual wages, create 500 construction jobs, and employ 350 workers during operations. Though environmental groups remain opposed, Rowe believes the project’s benefits outweigh the risks.

“We’ve been at this for eight years, and reaching this point’s a tremendous feeling,” Rowe said. “Now it’s time to move forward.”