Innovation slump drags mining productivity down: report

Mining productivity has fallen for more than a decade and has improved only 1% a year since 2018, a trend McKinsey & Company warns could threaten the sector’s ability to meet rising demand for critical minerals.

Innovation once delivered major gains across the sector but has lost momentum over the past 20 years, the firm says in a new report released this week. Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows manufacturing productivity more than doubled from 1997 to 2023, while agriculture, forestry and fishing rose more than 1.5 times. Mining productivity, by contrast, dropped by half, a decline McKinsey’s analysis confirms.

The report links the stagnation to deeper pits, longer hauls, declining grades, and remote conditions that have pushed many mines below historic performance curves. The slowdown comes as demand for critical minerals climbs, making improved productivity urgent.

 

McKinsey says a wave of converging technologies is starting to shift conditions. Advances in AI, automation, robotics, advanced chemistry, always-on connectivity at remote sites, and electrification are creating openings for higher-impact innovation across bottlenecked parts of the mining value chain, including loading, hauling, comminution, and processing.

To capture those gains, the report says mining companies need structures built around continuous feedback loops that tie aspiration, innovation, and execution. It stresses that leaders should start with the business problem, set an ambitious “North Star” based on the physics of the process, and assign accountable leadership.

 

“Innovation will be a real differentiator,” senior partner and co-author Sean Buckley said, noting that only a few miners will thrive on geology alone. “For everyone else, winning in innovation will be critical to moving down the cost curve and creating competitive advantage.”

Co-author Richard Sellschop added that the question is no longer whether to innovate, but how. He said the next decade will favour companies that make clear, bold choices about their roles in the innovation landscape and the problems they aim to solve.