Indonesia quota cut keeps nickel above $17,500

Nickel prices held above $17,500 (C$24,270) a tonne on Monday after Indonesia said last week it would cut next year’s nickel ore mining quota by about a third in a bid to tighten supply and lift prices.

Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange ended Monday at $17,578 a tonne after sliding from $18,075 the previous session. The contract had topped $18,160 on Jan. 14, according to Wuppertal-based traded Westmetall.

Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry set a 2026 nickel production target of 250–260 million tonnes in its annual mining work plans and budgets, known as RKAB, down from 379 million tonnes approved for last year, state news agency Antara reported last week.

“Cutting domestic output will lift nickel prices on world markets,” minerals and coal director-general Tri Winarno said Wednesday in Jakarta.

Investors have been watching for signs of supply discipline from Indonesia, whose rapid buildup of mining and smelting capacity has pressured nickel prices and squeezed producers elsewhere. A lower ore cap would tighten feedstock for the country’s smelters, which supply stainless-steel and battery chains.

Shanghai Metals Market estimated Indonesian processors consumed about 280 million tonnes of ore last year, above the ministry’s new target range.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia has urged large Indonesian refiners to buy ore from local miners to prevent monopolies, Antara reported. He was referring to concentrated buying power in the lopsided domestic ore market, (since an ore export ban remains in place) where dominant smelter groups can become the only practical customer for smaller local mining licence holders.