HSBC sees silver rise from gold strength, lifts forecast

Silver is set to benefit from the strength in the gold market in the coming years as it lifts its price outlook for the white-coloured metal from 2025 to 2027, HSBC says. 

The precious metal was trading for $38.46 per oz. mid-afternoon on Wednesday.  

Gold has been one of this year’s top-performing commodities, rising by nearly 30% to date. In April, at the height of a full-blown global trade war, it hit a record high of $3,500 per oz. as investors rushed to the safe-haven metal.

As a cheaper alternative to gold, silver also saw a substantial rally, with gains even surpassing that of gold. Momentum in silver picked up especially in the month of June, during which it spiked to levels not seen since 2011.

This rally is due more to the metal’s relationship with gold than underlying fundamentals, as record-high gold prices are exerting a “strong gravitational pull” on its sister metal, HSBC analysts said in a note on Tuesday.

Silver outlook

Given the potential for further tailwinds this year, such as a U.S. interest rate cut in September, the bank has raised its 2025 outlook for silver to $35.14 per oz., up from $30.28 per oz. previously. It also gave similar increases to the 2026 and 2027 forecasts, at $33.96 per oz. and $31.79 per oz. respectively.

While industrial demand for silver is set to ease in 2025 after four years of record-high growth, HSBC said the decline would likely be limited, and demand will pick up again in 2026 from key sectors such as the photovoltaic industry and electronics.

However, jewelry and silverware demand is likely to weaken further due to high prices, while coin and bar demand has been undercut by previous robust purchases and high prices, the bank added.

On the supply side, HSBC expects global mine output to keep rising at a modest pace to bring the global market deficit down.

According to bank’s supply-demand model, while the silver deficit is likely to widen in 2025 to 206 million oz. from 167 million oz. last year, that is likely to shrink to 126 million oz. the year after.