Goldman Sachs hikes copper price forecast

Goldman Sachs has raised its near-term copper price outlook, citing a de-escalation in global trade tensions and resilient demand from top consumer China.

In a note published Wednesday, the bank upgraded its second- and third-quarter price forecast to $9,330-$9,150 per tonne from $8,620-$8,370 per tonne previously. High U.S. imports are expected to deplete stocks outside the country this quarter as importers race to stock up ahead of potential tariffs that could increase prices. 

The drawdown, Goldman says, will tighten the London Metal Exchange’s (LME) forward spreads and discourage new speculative short positions, keeping copper prices elevated.

The forecast also accounts for China’s copper demand, which has remained firm this year mostly because of strong manufacturing exports. However, as reciprocal tariffs on general goods come into effect, demand is expected to slow in the third quarter, the bank added. The price could hit a low of $9,000 per tonne in October, it said. 

Slower second half

With the Trump administration expected to make an imminent decision on U.S. tariffs on copper imports, Goldman’s baseline forecast is for a significant slowdown in global copper demand in the second half of the year. 

However, if the decision is delayed to late this year, it could keep copper trade flows disrupted and cause a supply crunch outside the U.S. in the second half, especially in China, the bank noted. That would sustain prices. 

In the longer term, Goldman analysts predict that the copper market will move into a supply deficit in 2026, “driven by strong demand from electrification-related sectors and limited growth in mining.” That could mean prices of more than $10,500 per tonne by the end of 2026, the bank wrote.

Benchmark copper prices on the LME traded as high as $9,582 a tonne on Wednesday before easing to close at $9,420 per tonne. Within the last month, the plumbing and wiring metal traded on the LME as high as $10,071 per tonne, which was on April 30.