Goldman Sachs has lifted its year-end forecast for gold to $5,400 (C$7,542) per oz. to reflect the yellow metal’s growing appeal among private-sector investors.
In a note published Wednesday, the bank’s analysts reiterated the confluence of factors – including strong purchases from central banks – that drove gold prices up 64% last year.
Private investors will compete with institutions for gold in 2026 as they look to diversify their portfolios, Goldman said – a trend the investment bank said accelerated last year.
“We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don’t liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast,” the analysts wrote.
Spot gold price chart. Credit: Mining.com.
Central banks are expected to keep accumulating gold in 2026, led by those in emerging markets looking to diversify their reserve holdings. Goldman’s analysts peg the average purchase per central bank at 60 tonnes for the year.
Goldman’s revision follows bullion’s red-hot start to 2026. Having crossed several key price levels ($4,700 and $4,800) this week, the metal is now approaching $4,900 an ounce, which is the bank’s previous end-of-year target. Gold has gained about 11% since Jan. 1.
Despite the higher price forecast, Goldman also warned of potential downside risks – namely a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global monetary policy.
On Thursday, spot gold rose by 1% to around $4,885 per ounce. That’s just inches short of its all-time high of $4,887.19, which it set Wednesday.
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