Gold remains a top-performing asset heading into the second half of 2025, with prices up 26% year-to-date, according to the World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook.
The surge is driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, investor demand and robust central bank purchases.
While macroeconomic uncertainty clouds the road ahead, gold is expected to maintain a strong footing.
Geopolitical risks
The council outlines that gold could benefit from further economic and geopolitical instability, particularly if stagflation or recession risks grow.
Market consensus anticipates moderate upside potential in the second half, with possible gains of up to 5%, though a deterioration in global conditions could push prices up by as much as 15%.
Conversely, widespread conflict resolution and a pickup in global trade could trigger a correction of up to 17%, according to the report.
On Tuesday afternoon, gold traded at $3,327.38 per oz., down 0.5%.
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Market, investment trends
The World Gold Council says demand may continue from new institutional buyers, such as Chinese insurers, while technical indicators suggest recent price consolidation is setting the stage for further gains.
Central bank buying is expected to remain strong, though slightly below 2022 levels, while elevated prices may limit consumer demand and prompt more recycling, the council said.
The broader outlook points to a “seesaw” second half, with falling interest rates and persistent uncertainty likely to sustain gold’s appeal.
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