Gold price may hit $5,055 by late 2026: JPMorgan

Despite gold’s record-setting rally coming to a halt this week, analysts at JPMorgan remain bullish on the metal for the next year and beyond.

The bank projects gold prices to reach $5,055 per oz. by the fourth quarter of 2026. The forecast issued Thursday is based on assumptions that see investors and central banks buying around 566 tons of gold a quarter on average next year.

“Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle,” Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy, wrote in a note.

The combination of the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates “with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging” supports gold’s upside, added Gregory Shearer, the bank’s head of base and precious metals strategy.

Debasement refers to how investors are moving away from fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar in favour of “harder” assets. JPMorgan confirmed that foreign holders of U.S. assets have been “gradually redirecting small allocations” into bullion as part of their diversification strategy.

‘Healthy’ pullback

The analysts also shrugged off gold’s recent pullback, as they said it’s part of a “healthy consolidation” phase after an overextended run that saw prices hit successive records and rise for nine straight weeks.

“The pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since August,” Kaneva said. “It’s normal if you’re paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so fast…It’s just a very clean story – you have a lot of buyers, and you have no sellers.”

Over a longer horizon, the JPMorgan strategist gave a target of $6,000 an oz. by 2028, stating that gold should be viewed on a multi-year horizon. This mirrors the bank’s earlier prediction that gold will reach that price level by the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s current term.

Since reaching an all-time high of $4,380 per oz. on Monday, gold has been on the decline, including its worst single-day drop in 12 years. Still, the metal is trading above the $4,100 level and is up 58% on the year.

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