Copper surplus to more than double in 2025: ICSG

The global copper market is expected to see a significant surplus over the next two years as U.S. tariffs’ negative impact on demand outweigh supply growth, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest forecast.

The group, which recently concluded its biannual meeting with key industry players in Lisbon, now forecasts global copper surplus to reach 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 138,000 tonnes from last year. This forecast is also about 50% higher than its earlier projection for 2025 from last September.

In 2026, the surplus is expected to remain high at 209,000 tonnes, extending the surplus for a third straight year after a largely balanced market in 2023.

The widening surplus over the 2025-26 period, according to the ICSG, can largely be attributed to higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity.

Mine supply growth

For 2025, the Group expects global mine production to increase by 2.3% to 23.5 million tonnes, benefiting mainly from the ramp-up of the Kamoa (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia) mines and the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine (Russia).

Credit: ICSG

In 2026, a higher growth of 2.5% is anticipated, supported by the continued ramp-up of new/expanded capacity (including China), an expected improvement in Chilean and Zambian output, and a recovery in Indonesia from expected declines in 2025.

In both years, a series of smaller expansions and the start-up of a number of small/medium-sized mines will also contribute to the increase in global production notably in the DRC, Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola and Morocco, the ICSG said.

Higher refining capacity

The ICSG also sees expanded Chinese smelting capacity, as well as the start-up of new refineries in India, Indonesia and DRC, to contribute to a 2.9% increase in refined copper output this year.

In 2026, however, total refined production is expected to decline by 1.5%, due to constrained availability of copper concentrates leading to a slowdown in primary refined production. This will be partially offset by continued growth in the secondary processing sector, which generates refined copper from scrap.

Demand impact

According to the ICSG, uncertainty surrounding international trade policy is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, dragging this year’s refined copper usage down to 2.4% compared to its previous forecast of 2.7% and the 2.8% recorded in 2024.

Copper usage growth is expected to slow further to 1.8% in 2026, largely reflecting an anticipated loss of momentum in China, where copper usage is expected to shrink from 2% this year to just 0.8% next year.

Demand in other key copper regions such as Europe, Japan and the U.S. is also expected to remain “subdued”, leaving the Asia region as the lone key driver of demand.

However, the ICSG also acknowledged that demand drivers such as energy transition technology and data centres will continue to support copper usage, helping to offset some of the broader manufacturing hit from a prolonged trade war.

To read the full ICSG report, click here.