Glencore cuts 2026 copper target, plots long-term jump

Mining and commodities giant Glencore (LSE: GLEN) plans to expand annual copper production to about 1.6 million tonnes by 2035 as it seeks to reverse a multi-year slump in output.

CEO Gary Nagle told investors in London that the company expects its base copper business to exceed 1 million tonnes a year by the end of 2028, positioning Glencore among the world’s five largest producers. That’s up from a range of 850,000-875,000 tonnes this year.

The push comes as global miners race to increase supply, even as Glencore’s own copper output is set to fall for a fourth straight year and sit about 40% below 2018 levels.

The Swiss miner has faced pressure after its shares hit their lowest since 2020 and investors complained about repeated production cuts and operational underperformance. In response, Glencore has launched a sweeping operational review that will see it cut about 1,000 jobs. It’s targeting roughly $1 billion in recurring cost savings by the end of 2025, executives said at the company’s first investor day in London in three years.

Copper prices hit a fresh record above $11,400 a tonne on Wednesday, taking their gain this year to about 30% on the back of supply disruptions and strong investor demand tied to electrification and the energy transition.

Eyes in South America

Despite outlining long-term growth plans, Glencore cut its 2026 copper guidance to 810,000–870,000 tonnes from a previous 930,000-tonne target after setbacks at Chile’s Collahuasi mine, which it jointly owns with Anglo American (LSE: AAL). The company also lowered its zinc and cobalt forecasts for next year.

Credit: Glencore’s Capital Markets Day

Restarting the Alumbrera mine, in Argentina’s Catamarca province, will support Glencore’s 2028 goal of hitting 1 million tonnes in output by 2028.

The operation is expected to restart in next year’s fourth quarter, with first production in the first half of 2028. Once fully operational, Alumbrera is expected to produce about 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over four years.

“These projects are mostly brownfield and expected to be highly capital efficient,” Nagle said. He added that Glencore would be looking for partnerships to “reduce financial and operations risks” in certain projects.

The restart offers strong stand-alone economics, Glencore said. It serves as a natural enabler for the Minera Agua Rica–Alumbrera project by reducing ramp-up risk for the concentrator and downstream logistics, maintaining and retraining the workforce ahead of first ore and keeping critical infrastructure active for shared use, generating operational synergies.

Keeping Chile footprint

In neighbouring Chile, Glencore plans to keep an equal share in its copper joint venture with Anglo American should the partners eventually merge the Collahuasi operation with Teck Resources’ (TSX: TECK.A TECK.B, NYSE: TECK) nearby Quebrada Blanca mine once Anglo acquires Teck.

“We won’t be a junior partner,” Nagle said, adding Glencore could inject cash to keep its stake level in any future combination.

Teck and Anglo shareholders will vote next week on the deal to create a copper-rich mining giant, with the two Chilean assets seen as a central motivation. The expectation that Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca could be integrated to unlock major cost savings has circulated for years.

Nagle said any combination must reflect Collahuasi’s improved relative value after recent setbacks at Quebrada Blanca. “We’re not ignorant to some adjacent potential synergies,” he said. “At a minimum, the value attributed to the two properties, the value has materially moved towards Collahuasi.”