Fresnillo lifts gold forecast on first-half surge

Shares in Fresnillo (LSE: FRES) jumped 6% on Tuesday after the Mexican precious metals miner raised its gold production forecast for the year, driven by a strong first-half performance of rising profit and solid free cash flow.

For the six months ending June 30, gold production rose 16% to 314,000 oz., fuelled by operational gains at the Herradura mine in Sonora. In contrast, silver output fell 12% year-over-year to 24.9 million oz., weighed down by mine closures and lower ore grades.

The company responded to the performance by revising its full-year guidance. Fresnillo now expects to produce between 550,000 and 590,000 oz. of gold, up from a previous range of 525,000 to 580,000 ounces. The upward revision reflects both operational improvements and stronger metal prices, along with continued cost discipline.

Fresnillo’s shares closed at £15.20 in London on Tuesday, giving it a market capitalization of nearly £11.2 billion (US$14.9 billion).

Silver output

The company lowered its silver forecast slightly to a range of 47.5 million to 54.5 million oz., down from 49 million to 56 million ounces. Fresnillo attributed the cut to the end of silverstream contributions following a buyback agreement with Peñoles, the planned closure of the San Julián DOB mine, and lower grades across several operations.

Revenue rose 30% year-over-year to $1.94 billion, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization more than doubled to $1.1 billion, up 103%.

Fresnillo also scaled back its capital expenditure for 2025 to $450 million, signalling a move away from aggressive expansion towards focused reinvestment. Project delays at Saucito and Juanicipio prompted a reshuffling of priorities, with the company now aiming to optimize its existing asset base.