Fitch Solutions’ BMI boosts industrial metals forecasts

Analysts at Fitch Solutions’ BMI have lifted their price forecasts for industrial metals to reflect the speculative momentum in the sector as well as strong market fundamentals and macroeconomic forces.

Metals like copper and aluminum have gone on a massive rally since late 2025, and that momentum carried into January as their prices hit records. This metals frenzy was “driven largely by bullish speculative trades across the markets” on top of bets on a weakening dollar and tighter supply, BMI says.

While the rally was always unsustainable, as illustrated by last week’s historic metals crash, strong fundamentals — namely a tight physical market — “should help base metals find a floor above historical averages in the coming months,” BMI’s analysts wrote in a note published on Tuesday.

In the coming weeks, prices of key industrial metals like copper could consolidate above historical averages as they transition into a corrective phase, with the possibility of a fundamentals-driven resurgence, BMI says.

Upgraded forecasts

The higher forecasts come despite the London Metal Exchange index already hovering at record highs.

For copper, the Fitch Solutions unit sees prices staying elevated through at least mid-2026 and averaging $11,900 per t0nne for the year, with upside risks included. The red-colored metal set a record high of $14,500 per tonne in London last week before falling to about $13,000 per tonne.

BMI also revised its annual average price forecast for aluminium to $2,900 per tonne on the back of supportive macro conditions and persisting expectations of structural tightness in the global market. The metal is currently trading at its highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Tin received a significant upward revision — from $35,000 per tonne to $45,000 — as analysts highlighted the sharp rise in speculative demand alongside permitting issues in Indonesia and supply constraints in Myanmar. Three-month futures on the LME are now hovering around $47,100 per tonne.

Two battery metals — nickel and lithium — also received upgrades amid rising demand for clean energy transition applications. BMI’s annual average price forecast for nickel is set at $15,800 per tonne, while lithium prices, which have gained the most this year, are projected at $13,500 per tonne and $13,000 per tonne for carbonates and hydroxides respectively.

“While prices are still likely to fluctuate and settle at a higher level than historical averages, another sustained rally remains elusive for now and base metals appear poised for a correction across the board,” BMI’s analysts wrote.