Editorial Who really will be No. 2 gold producer?

News items concerning two of the world’s leading gold- producing countries came across our desk the other day, one claiming that the U.S. has supplanted Canada as the western world’s second largest gold producer, following South Africa, the other that in fact Australia is about ready to move into the No 2 position. In total world terms of course the Soviet Union is the second largest gold producer.

The Metals Economics Group, of Boulder, Colo. says that last year production from primary gold mines in the U.S. totalled over 3.4 million ounces (105.7 tonnes), while Canada in that year produced some 2.7 million ounces (84 tonnes), the latter figure coming from the federal Department of Energy, Mines and Resources. That does, indeed, put the U.S. squarely into the No 2 spot in the western world, and No 3 worldwide.

But if a newsletter from Australia can be believed, that country this year is likely to deprive the U.S. of its newly-won gold- producing honors. Just a decade ago, Australia was producing only about 482,000 ounces of gold (15 tonnes) per year, but industry analysts Down Under are saying that in 1987 that figure could go as high as 3.8 million ounces (120 tonnes).

It looks as though the race for position may depend on who the experts are. Shearson Lehman for instance forecasts production in 1987 of just 2.9 million ounces (90 tonnes) for Australia, but 4.6 million ounces (144 tonnes) for the U.S., and 3.9 million ounces (121 tonnes) for Canada.

Whoever’s right, one thing is clear. Output of gold for a good many of the gold-producing countries in the western world (for which statistics are available) has been growing at quite a remarkable rate in recent years and shows little sign of abating. South Africa, the biggest of them all, is one of the few where current production has actually declined, at least from production figures in the early- and mid-1980s.

The strike in that country is going to deepen that situation even more.