Editorial Ontario must address power shortage

Already this winter Falconbridge has suffered power shortages at its Sudbury operations for 14-hour stretches on several consecutive days — a total of 110 hours in December alone. The demand for power elsewhere in Ontario was too great and Falconbridge’s hydro contract allowed it to be “bumped.” Other major power users have suffered similar shortages. In fact, of 40 Ontario Hydro customers with “interruptible” contracts, 37 have suffered shortages, all for the maximum allowable 110 hours.

Is it any wonder major power consumers are concerned about the ability of Ontario Hydro to meet demand for electricity in the 1990s? 1500,0000 Elsewhere in Canada, the situation is not as critical. Quebec and Manitoba face temporary shortages that will likely be resolved when water levels return to normal. British Columbia has an oversupply.

Ontario, however, is running hard just to keep up, and because the planning process is so time-consuming, even the best efforts are likely to fall short of the demand by the mid-1990s. One nuclear station, Darlington, is expected to meet the growth in demand for the next two or three years, but beyond that there is no new generation capacity of any magnitude planned.

Yet, despite the knowledge of an impending shortage, it is proving very difficult to make decisions because the data are so contentious. For example, Ontario Hydro estimates conservation methods can cut the demand for power by 3,000 megawatts during the next 10 years, but conservationists say 7,000 MW can be trimmed — a difference greater than the total capacity of the not-yet-opened Darlington nuclear station. Independent power producers say they can be producing 8,000 MW by the end of the century, while Hydro estimates they can produce only 1,600.

However, recent experience shows that conservation goals are easier to state than to attain. Even during this winter — one needn’t bother looking ahead to the mid-1990s — power was in short supply. Pleas by Ontario Hydro to householders begging them to reduce power consumption is an indication of just how critical the situation is. Judging by the plentiful Christmas lights, however, the plea fell on deaf ears. Obviously, the traditions of Christmas take priority over the need for conservation.

For those who say trivial savings as Christmas lights make little difference to the big picture, consider that such decorative touches come at the peak hours of the peak season for electricity demand. And remember, hydro can’t be stored — it has to be produced for immediate consumption. The failure of conservation, even on this small scale, contributed to the shortages at Falconbridge and elsewhere.

Cost estimates for meeting the province’s needs for the next quarter century are also open to question. For example, a recent proposal by Ontario Hydro for meeting the needs of the next 25 years calls for 10 nuclear power-generating units at three stations is expected to cost $20 billion but the 4-unit Darlington station alone has already cost $12.5 billion.

The fact is that many Ontario consumers assume there is ample electrical power. There has been a surplus in the province for the past decade, and consumers have come to take for granted the ability to flick a switch and have a light come, to run the computers, fax machines, coffee makers and a myriad of other items that are a part of life today. It is difficult to see a shortage looming, but the lead time for building power-generating capacity is so great that it is already too late to meet the demands of 1994. By then Ontario will have to pay — and pay dearly — for the power it needs.

For number jugglers, this is a plum issue. Electrical power is vital to the province’s future economic viability, yet the numbers used to predict the future vary according to who is doing the juggling. That uncertainty, combined with the extremely high cost and the emotional strings attached to environmental issues of how to produce the power, makes this a very political issue. Unfortunately, this decision can’t wait for political dilly-dallying.

Unless action is taken now, the province is likely to face power shortages in the next three or four years. And an uncertain supply of electrical power will make many think twice about locating in Ontario or expanding existing facilities. If Falconbridge and other major consumers are already having trouble, future supply is far from certain. The net result of failing to meet the demand for power will be a loss of jobs. Ultimately, everyone will lose.