The Democratic Republic of Congo will end a ban on cobalt exports next month and impose annual shipment quotas instead as the world’s biggest producer of the metal seeks to cut global inventories and shore up prices, various media organizations reported.
Starting Oct. 16, miners will be able to ship up to 18,000 tonnes for the rest of this year and a maximum of about 96,600 tonnes in 2026 and 2027, BMO Capital Markets mining analysts said Monday in a note, citing the country’s strategic minerals regulator. Quotas will be granted to miners based on historical exports, BMO added.
DR Congo, which accounted for about three-quarters of 2024 global cobalt output, suspended exports in February after global prices fell to a nine-year low. Major producers including Glencore (LSE: GLEN) and China’s CMOC Group subsequently declared force majeure on some deliveries when the DRC extended the ban in June for three months. Glencore warned last month that a significant chunk of its cobalt output may remain unsold by the end of 2025.
The new quota represents less than half of DR Congo’s 2024 cobalt output of 220,000 tonnes, BMO said. Glencore backs the new system while CMOC opposes it, the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) reported Monday.
Some 10% of future volumes will be reserved for “strategic” national projects, the SABC said, citing the DRC’s mining regulator. Quotas could be revised in the future based on market conditions or progress in local refining, the SABC added.
Artisanal mining
Resource-rich Eastern Congo is mired in a long-running conflict that pits the M23 rebel group against government forces. The DRC government has repeatedly blamed illegal mining of minerals such as cobalt for fueling violence by armed militias.
Artisanal miners account for a significant share of the DRC’s cobalt production, the SABC said. This makes traceability and compliance more complicated for global buyers.
DR Congo’s export ban has helped to support prices. Through last week, the price of cobalt sulphate entering the electric vehicle battery supply chain in China had climbed more than 90% since the start of the year.
The size of the global battery cobalt market rose to an estimated $180.1 million in August, the highest since December 2022, according to data compiled by Toronto-based consulting firm Adamas Intelligence. The average value of the cobalt contained in electric vehicle batteries now exceeds $70 per vehicle, up from less than $40 at the start of the year.
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