Deutsche Bank lifts gold price forecast to $4,000

Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,000 per oz., citing continued central bank demand, especially from China, a falling U.S. dollar, and rising uncertainty over Fed independence.

In a note to clients, analysts led by Michael Hsueh said that the recent surge in gold still has “further headroom to run,” revising their previous forecast of $3,700 to a more bullish $4,000 per oz. on average for 2026.

The team pointed to macroeconomic volatility and political developments in the U.S., highlighting uncertainty created by changes in the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and growing challenges to the Federal Reserve’s independence. These dynamics, they said, could influence how the central bank adjusts its policy tools in the face of shifting economic conditions next year.

Gold has been on a tear in 2025, surging about 41% year-to-date and recently breaking through the $3,700 mark for the first time ever.

Gold outpaces

The rally has outpaced gains in major asset classes like the S&P 500 and pushed bullion beyond its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980. A weakening U.S. dollar—now at its lowest levels since July—has also helped propel prices, as has a widely expected rate cut by the Fed that markets had mostly priced in before the body lowered it by 0.25% on Wednesday. 

Deutsche Bank also emphasized the role of country buying in supporting prices. Central banks are currently acquiring gold at roughly double the pace seen between 2011 and 2021, with China being the largest contributor. Recent trade data showed that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rose by 127% in July compared to June. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China has continued to add gold to its reserves, further strengthening demand.

While the long-term outlook remains bullish, the bank flagged several possible headwinds. These include strong equity market performance that may reduce safe-haven demand, increased clarity around President Donald Trump’s trade policies, and potential changes in U.S. immigration enforcement that could alter labour market dynamics and affect Fed policy.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs issued an even more aggressive projection, suggesting that gold could approach $5,000 per oz. if just 1% of privately held U.S. Treasuries were reallocated into the metal.