Despite gold drop JPMorgan sees $6,300 this year

JPMorgan is maintaining a bullish outlook on gold prices by setting an end-of-year price target of $6,300 an oz. amid a broader shift towards hard assets.

In a note published late Sunday, the bank’s analysts cited the “ongoing diversification” trend that has driven gold to record highs in recent weeks. Gold has “further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets,” they wrote.

The forecast follows gold’s biggest decline in decades last week, with the yellow metal cratering by more than 10% during Friday’s trading session after setting a record of nearly $5,600 an oz. a day earlier.

The decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, seen as a safe bet, lowered the price of gold by boosting investor confidence, pushing them away from haven assets like precious metals. It also raised the value of the dollar, which lowers assets that are priced in it globally like metals, other things being equal. 

Decade outlook

In the same week, JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said prices could push towards $8,000 an oz. by the end of this decade if private sector investors allocate more funds into gold.

Alongside private sector investment, central banks are also expected to remain major buyers of gold to keep prices elevated, the bank highlighted. In its note, analysts see central bank gold purchases reaching 800 tons again in 2026.

Gold prices continued its decline on Monday, down 4% by midday to around $4,600 per 0z. before regaining some ground. Still, the metal remains up 12% year to date.

Silver riskier

Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts offered a cautious stance on the more-volatile silver, which skyrocketed to records last week before crashing down from $120 an oz. to $70 an oz. in just two days.

“The drivers of the continued rally have become harder to pinpoint and quantify, making it more cautious,” they wrote.

“Without central banks as structural dip buyers as in gold, there remains the risk for a further move back higher in the gold-to-silver ratio in the coming weeks,” the brokerage added.

For now, analysts see a floor of $75-$80 per oz. for silver prices, which is higher than its previous expectations, but warned that the metal is “unlikely to fully relinquish its gains.”