Dearth of quality new gold discoveries to crimp supply — report

In recent years, gold discoveries around the world have become more scarce and smaller in size, dampening the outlook for future supply of the metal, according to the latest analysis by S&P Global.

The new report shows that there have only been five major gold discoveries since 2020, adding about 17 million oz. to the firm’s database of gold discoveries. For its analysis, the New York-based firm defined a major gold discovery as one containing at least 2 million oz. in reserves, resources and past production.

However, S&P’s report noted that while the number of discoveries and amount of gold continue to grow each year, most of the assets were discovered decades ago and only recently met its criteria for a notable gold discovery.

Compared to its analysis last year, the five new discoveries contributed to just 22% of the 79 million oz. added in the 2024 update.

It also pointed out that the average size of recent gold discoveries has shrunk to about 3.5 million oz. compared with 5.5 million oz. during 2010-2019. In fact, none of the discoveries made over the past 10 years entered the list of the 30 largest gold discoveries.

This trend, said S&P research analyst Paul Manalo, supports the firm’s long-held view that the industry’s focus on older and known deposits limits the chances of finding huge gold discoveries in early-stage prospects.

“The lack of quality discoveries in the recent decade does not bode well for the gold supply,” Manalo said.

“Based on the latest monthly Gold Commodity Briefing Service, we expect gold supply to peak in 2026 at 110 million ounces, driven by increased production Australia, Canada and the U.S. — countries that also account for the most discovered gold.”

He went on to add that gold supply is expected to fall to 103 million oz. in 2028, resulting from a decline in supply from these countries.

For the full report, click here.