Copper price won’t top $11,000 for long: Goldman

Goldman Sachs Group is seeking to curb enthusiasm over copper’s record-breaking rally, saying the metal’s breakout above $11,000 a tonne is unlikely to last as global supplies remain adequate.

In a note to clients this week, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham argued that the recent rally centres around “expectation of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals.” Prices are not expected to hold at current levels, they added.

The warning comes with copper having just set a new record high of $11,540 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, fueled by fears of a global supply squeeze as the metal continues to be shipped into the United States ahead of potential tariffs.

Those concerns were heightened last week after trading house Mercuria Energy Group expressed concern about the “extreme” dislocations in the current market. “There’s growing recognition that ongoing U.S.-bound flows could fuel shortages in China and other markets, even in a weakening demand environment,” Kostas Bintas, Mercuria’s head of metals, said during an industry event held in Shanghai last month.

“Demand is not good, there is a surplus — and the price going higher. There is a special dynamic,” he highlighted, even predicting that non-U.S. markets could “be left without copper cathodes”.

Higher premiums

Goldman’s analysts have a different take. While acknowledging the supply drain that is taking place, resulting in a higher copper price forecast for the first half of 2026, they insist that the “critically low” inventories outside the U.S. could be avoided via higher regional premiums and tighter London Metal Exchange spreads.

“While our much smaller 2026 surplus of 160,000 tons moves the market closer to balanced, it means that we do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon,” they wrote. Prices will be “constricted” in a range between $10,000-$11,000 a tonne next year, they added.

Copper has a long history of lofty predictions that have failed to materialize. And although disruptions at major mines through 2026 have tightened supply, growth in global demand has softened in recent months despite continued strength from sectors such as clean energy.

Looking ahead, Goldman said it doesn’t see a global copper shortage emerging until at least 2029, as demand is still forecast to be about half a million tonnes short of supply this year. A key factor is the pivotal Chinese market, where consumption could slump by nearly 8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, the investment bank noted.