Copper price hits record on U.S. growth hopes, China

Copper hit a record high Friday before easing amid expectations of faster U.S. economic growth and continued economic support from the Chinese authorities.

Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 2.7% Friday to $11,872 per tonne, LME data show. In U.S. trading, copper futures topped $5.40 per lb., their strongest level in more than four months, according to data supplied to Northern Miner Group.

After cutting its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday lifted its economic outlook by projecting growth of 2.3% next year, up from 1.8% previously.

Market sentiment also benefited from comments by China’s Central Economic Work Conference, which reaffirmed its intention to offer broad economic support in 2026 during its annual economic planning meeting.

The comments from Beijing “no doubt provided a strong tailwind, particularly for the industrial metals,” BMO Capital Markets analysts Helen Amos and George Heppel said Friday in a note. “The door is open for systemic cash injections, increase in on-budget deficit target special bond quotas, and capacity measures to provide price support.”

Shortage

Supply shortages are one of the reasons why copper has gained about 35% since the start of the year as production struggles to keep pace with consumption growth.

CME copper prices. Source: TradingView.

The market imbalance is expected to persist, with a global refined copper deficit of about 330,000 tonnes in 2026, J.P. Morgan Global Research said in a recent research note.

Copper could reach $12,500 per tonne on the LME in the second quarter of 2026 and average $12,075 per tonne for the full year, J.P. Morgan said.

Longtime U.S. rival Goldman Sachs offers a different take. In a research note published Friday, the investment bank predicts LME-traded copper will average $10,710 in the first half of 2026.

Copper traded on the LME will probably remain in a range of $10,000-$11,000 in 2026 “as strong global demand growth from the grid and power infrastructure, backed by investment in strategic sectors” such as artificial intelligence and defence, keep prices from falling below $10,000,” analyst Eoin Dinsmore wrote.

Demand

While the global copper market has been in surplus this year, a combination of limited growth in the supply from mines and rising structural demand from power infrastructure should create more of a balance between supply and demand next year, and lift prices beyond 2026, Goldman said.

China will probably remain the single largest driver, accounting for about half of demand growth to 2030, Goldman added. 

By 2035, the investment bank sees copper trading at $15,000 per tonne on the LME – above the consensus of industry analysts.