The all-commodity price index of Scotiabank rose by 2% in March, its first monthly gain since October. A strong recovery in base metals — up 7.2% from February — offset small declines in forestry products and agricultural prices and a seasonal decline in energy. The all-items index is 9.6% below its level one year ago. Economist Patricia Mohr said base metal prices rebounded in March from an oversold position at the beginning of the year. “Strikes and production difficulties have interrupted supplies of copper, lead and zinc, contributing to a continuing tight supply-demand balance for these metals,” she said. Aluminum prices also gained, but to a lesser degree.
Mohr expects industrial metal prices to remain at profitable levels in 1990-91, then decline next year as global mine-smelter capacity is expanded. Current prices for copper and zinc sit well above break- even costs in Canada.
The all-commodity index tracks export prices of a variety of Canadian commodities, which are weighted according to their 1984 export values, except crude oil where the value of net exports is used.
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