COMMENTARY — Rising nuclear generating capacity

The American consulting and information services company NUKEM predicts, in its recent monthly publication, that world nuclear generating capacity will grow during the remainder of this decade but that Canadian capacity will decline. Canada remains the world’s major producer of uranium, supplying about one-third of global output:

At the end of 1994, 424 nuclear power plants (units) were operating worldwide. Total nuclear generating capacity was 340 GWe (gigawatts) net, up almost 8% from five years ago. An additional 54 nuclear units were under construction. Looking ahead, world nuclear generating capacity could increase to about 372 GWe net during the next five years.

Anti-nuclear sentiment in North America and Western Europe will likely hinder the development of additional nuclear capacity. In fact, only one new unit in the United Kingdom and two new units in the U.S. are scheduled to come on-stream by the year 2000 — and one of the two American units is questionable.

Some countries in central and eastern Europe and in the Commonwealth of Independent States continue to operate nuclear power plants that, in the opinion of some environmental groups (and even neighboring countries), do not meet international standards. But the governments of the countries in which these plants are situated have affirmed their intentions to improve safety in an effort to aggressively pursue nuclear development. They see no viable energy alternative, at least not in the short term.

Most of the new nuclear capacity will be in Asia, where energy needs are increasing as a result of population growth and continued economic development. In Latin America, nuclear capacity is expected to double in the next five years. But on a relative basis, expansion in Latin America will be marginal. Neither the Middle East nor Africa (with the exception of South Africa) is expected to expand nuclear capacity significantly. In Canada, the current nuclear-generating capacity of 15,710 MWe (megawatts) net is projected to decline to 14,862 MWe by 1999. (Global nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase during the same period, to 372,106 from 339,541 MWe net.)

Canada has 22 nuclear power units (20 in Ontario, at three sites, and one each in Quebec and New Brunswick) which supply 17.3% of the country’s total electricity generation. No units are under construction, nor are any planned.