Citi softens short-term bearish outlook on copper

Post-pandemic demand, Russia-driven supply troubles buoy copper price outlookA copper smelter. Credit: Adobe stock photo.

Citigroup has softened its short-term bearish outlook on copper by lifting its three-month price target to $8,800 a tonne, citing United States President Donald Trump’s recent decision to suspend many tariffs for 90 days.

The New York-based investment bank previously gave the red-coloured metal a price forecast of $8,000 following Trump’s April 7 tariff announcements.

However, Citi analysts now see a decreased “bearish risk” in the next three months due to several factors – including the surprising strength in Chinese buying and sustained scrap market tightness due to U.S. stockpiling.

“All point to a more gradual copper price decline through Q2 2025 versus the deeper and faster investor sell-off we previously anticipated, with funds still positioned net bullish,” Citi said in a note this week.

For this quarter, the bank is projecting copper prices will average $9,000 per tonne. The metal is currently trading at around $10,300 a tonne on the Comex, and around $9,200 a tonne in London.

Citi’s bearish outlook remains unchanged as physical copper consumption and manufacturing activity slow down due to U.S. tariffs, especially with the 145% levy on manufacturing hub China.

“We are unsure exactly how far copper prices can fall but our view is still to wait to buy until President Trump reverses tariffs, fully redistributes tariff revenue, or Fed or China ‘policy puts’ kick in,” Citi said.

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