Chinese copper imports to rise

Chinese imports of copper in all forms could rise by 75% to almost 1 million tonnes of contained copper by 2005, according to a study from CRU International of London, England.

In its 2-volume China and the Copper Market, 1994-2005, the metals and minerals consultant says imports in 1993, in all forms, totaled 542,000 tonnes.

Much of the rise in imports will be in the form of intermediate products, including concentrates and scrap. Despite large proven reserves at Dexing in Jiangxi province, local mine production is expected to satisfy less than one-third of the country’s refined copper demand in 2005. Consequently, imports of copper-in-concentrates are forecast to quadruple during the next 10 years.

Imports of copper and copper alloy scrap are also forecast to rise to 250,000 tonnes in 2005 from 30,000 tonnes in 1993, reflecting the rapid development of China’s scrap processing industry. In contrast, refined copper imports are expected to level off in the late 1990s at around 300,000 tonnes per year. In 2005, China’s refined copper consumption is expected to be about 1.8 million tonnes, more than double the 1993 level. CRU considers that refined demand will be fueled by the country’s expanding electrical and electronics manufacturing sector, and major improvements in its infrastructure. Demand for copper power cable, particularly in urban areas, will continue to rise sharply as the government expands the electricity-generating and distribution network.

To meet this relentless growth in consumption, smelter and refined production capacity will at least double during the next decade, CRU says. Blister output is expected to rise to about 900,000 tonnes per year; eight new smelters are under construction, while 10 or so of the country’s existing 16 smelters are expanding. A dozen of China’s 40 refineries are also either planning new tankhouses or expanding their existing ones.

For more information, contact CRU International, 31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD, U.K.