Chile loads copper cannon with 13 projects for 2026

Thirteen Chilean copper projects worth $14.8 billion (C$20 billion) are expected to hit key milestones in 2026 as prices rise on fears of a global supply squeeze.

Seven domestic projects aim to start operations next year, adding almost 500,000 tonnes of annual capacity backed by $7.1 billion in investment, according to official government figures.

The list includes infrastructure and productivity upgrades – known as project C20+ – at Anglo American’s (LSE: AAL) and Glencore’s (LSE-GLEN) Collahuasi mine, Codelco’s Rajo Inca structural project, Capstone Copper’s (TSX: CS; ASX: CSC) Mantos Blancos and Andes Iron’s controversial Dominga.

Another six developments plan to begin construction, representing $7.7 billion in spending tied to copper’s strategic role in energy and technology. Those include BHP’s (ASX, LSE, NYSE: BHP) Spence and Capstone’s Santo Domingo.

While several projects are scheduled to start producing in 2026, they won’t hit full capacity immediately, says Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of Chilean mining consultancy GEM.  The new assets could lift Chile’s output to about 5.6 million tonnes, representing about 100,000 additional tonnes of fine copper within a year, he added, citing estimates from the Chilean copper commission known as Cochilco.

Output gap

Next year’s global supply deficit could hit 150,000 tonnes, a gap that would widen if Chilean projects stall, according to an International Copper Study Group analysis.

“The long-term reality is that building a new mine is difficult,” said Benchmark Minerals copper analyst Albert Mackenzie. “Nearly everything the global economy wants to invest in is copper-intensive, including the energy transition and artificial intelligence.”

The main risk for Chile’s 2026 slate lies with community relations rather than market dynamics or the country’s new government, Guzmán said.

“The role of communities will continue to be relevant,” he said. While projects starting operations have already cleared key hurdles, he warned that those set to begin construction face ongoing approval processes that could end up in court.

Significant investment is essential for these projections to materialize, Guzmán added. State-run Cochilco expects the country to attract $105 billion through 2034 – an estimate that includes expansions at consolidated operations such as BHP’s Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.

Law and order

The recent victory of ultra-conservative former congressman José Antonio Kast, who is set to take office as Chile’s next president in March, is being viewed by markets as positive.

Kast’s win represents a shift toward a more pro-investment, pro-development stance in Chile, mining investors have said. His administration is expected to streamline permitting and environmental approvals, reduce regulatory uncertainty and offer greater fiscal stability, lowering the risk of new tax or royalty changes mid-cycle.

His law-and-order approach could also bring greater operational certainty by curbing protests and disruptions that have delayed mining activity in recent years, though it may raise tensions with some local communities, observers said.

For Chile’s 13 copper projects, some of which are nearing production, this could translate into faster decision-making, easier access to private and foreign capital and a higher likelihood of moving from planning to execution in time to capture a bullish 2026 market.

Copper has climbed nearly 40% this year, topping $12,000 a tonne this week for the first time as supply concerns deepened. Stockpiling in the United States has added strain, with companies accelerating cathode shipments into U.S. warehouses ahead of possible 2027 tariffs on refined copper.

Mackenzie said the U.S. has driven the 2025 price run-up, with an estimated 730,000 to 830,000 tonnes diverted into domestic storage and leveraged against the CME futures curve. The shift has tightened LME inventories, raised premiums in Europe and Asia and boosted prices for CME-deliverable brands such as Codelco cathodes.

Production cut

Sentiment also strengthened after Chinese smelters announced a 10% output cut for next year. JP Morgan expects a 2026 refined copper deficit of 330,000 tonnes. Mining capacity will be tight because no major new expansions are coming online and several operations are underperforming, Mackenzie said. Even when new mines open, metal takes time to reach the market, he added.

“When Freeport’s Grasberg mine had its disruption, prices jumped immediately,” he said. “Traders didn’t say: ‘Let’s wait three months for it to matter.’”

Forecasts of long-term structural deficit forecasts should be dismissed because “the market always finds a way,” Mackenzie says. Higher prices can curb demand, more scrap can enter the system and substitution can ease pressure. Even so, demand will rise and extraction is getting harder, he acknowledged.

Projects needed to meet that demand should already be under construction, and some buyers are now exploring alternatives after years of bullish shortage narratives.