Chilean miner Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO) reported on Thursday that its copper production for 2024 fell below company expectations, despite exceeding its total output for the previous year.
The company, Chile’s largest copper miner after the state-owned Codelco, produced 664,000 tonnes of copper in 2024. This represents a 1% increase compared to the prior year but is still below the forecast range of 670,000 to 710,000 tonnes.
“This isn’t a surprise,” BMO Metals and Mining analyst Alexander Pearce wrote in a note to investors. “It reflects a relatively challenging year, during which fourth quarter copper shipments of 192,000 tonnes were 8% below our forecast, possibly due to timing.”
Despite this, Antofagasta — which operates four copper mines in Chile — maintained its 2025 guidance at 660,000 to 700,000 tonnes.
Shares in Antofagasta closed 2.4% higher in London on Thursday at £17.38 apiece, valuing the company at £17.3 billion.
Lower costs
Cash costs and net cash costs both beat guidance, came in at US$1.64 per lb. (net) for fiscal year 2024, compared to the US$1.70 per lb. guidance, and US$2.37 per lb. (gross) against a forecast of US$2.40 per pound.
“Our solid performance on costs, at a time of rising costs in the copper industry, demonstrates the importance of our competitiveness program,” CEO Iván Arriagada said in a release.
In the fourth quarter, copper production totalled 200,300 tonnes, a 12% increase from the previous quarter. This was driven by increased output across all of its operations, with flagship mine Los Pelambres contributing 95,000 tonnes, Centinela 73,000 tonnes, Antucoya 21,000 tonnes, and Zaldívar 11,000 tonnes.
Gold production for the full year, however, declined 11% to 186,900 oz. due to lower grades at Centinela Concentrates. Fourth-quarter gold output rose by 32% quarter-on-quarter.
US$3.9B in 2025
Antofagasta reiterated plans to invest US$3.9 billion, one of the largest sums ever earmarked by the company, as it seeks to expand operations in the home country and into neighbouring Peru.
The lion’s share of the investment will go toward the company’s key development projects, including Los Pelambres’ new concentrate pipeline and Centinela’s second concentrator, both of which are advancing on time and on budget.
The US$4.4 billion Nueva Centinela project, approved in December 2023, will add 144,000 tonnes copper-equivalent a year to its overall production. The expansion also includes increasing the current molybdenum plant’s capacity and a new development of the Esperanza Sur pit, with the introduction of new autonomous trucks.
Antofagasta, majority-owned by Chile’s Luksic family, one of the country’s wealthiest, has set an ambitious goal of becoming one of the world’s top 10 producers of the metal, primarily used in electric vehicle batteries and construction.
In recent years, the company has made several strides toward this goal, including a 2023 acquisition of a 19% stake in Peru’s Minera Buenaventura for an undisclosed sum.
The miner has also a presence in the United States, through its subsidiary Twin Metals. The unit has been attempting to develop an underground copper-nickel mine and processing facility along the shores of Birch Lake and the South Kawishiwi River in Minnesota for over a decade.
The project suffered a major blow in 2023 when the Biden administration cancelled Twin Metals’ two long-standing mineral leases and imposed a 20-year moratorium on the surrounding area.
The company has been fighting to get the licences back since.
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