Gold price gets U.S. bond policy boost

Gold’s surge to about $4,600 per oz. this week may have further to run if U.S. policymakers increasingly intervene to hold down long-term borrowing costs, according to the World Gold Council.

Bullion climbed to a three-month high Friday after the United States Treasury unexpectedly expanded purchases of longer-dated government bonds, weakening the U.S. dollar and reinforcing investor concerns over Washington’s growing debt burden — which hit $40 trillion just this week after doubling in less than a decade.

The Treasury announced Aug. 19 that it would double buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries after yields climbed to their highest levels in years. The move immediately pushed bond yields and the dollar lower while sending spot gold up more than 3% to nearly $4,500 per oz., its biggest one-day gain since February. By Friday, bullion had climbed above $4,600, extending its rally to a third straight week.

Cambridge University economist Mohamed El-Erian said the Treasury’s action was “not yield-curve control (YCC) but it might be a step in that direction,” a view highlighted by the World Gold Council in a report on Friday examining what the policy shift could mean for bullion investors.

The council argues that the Treasury’s announcement reflects a deeper challenge confronting U.S. financial markets. Persistent fiscal deficits require ever-larger bond issuance while a rapidly expanding stock of outstanding debt must also be refinanced. At the same time, some of the market’s traditional buyers are becoming less dependable. Foreign central banks are diversifying reserves, and investors abroad have alternatives offering attractive returns.

Hedge funds

Banks remain constrained by capital rules and corporate borrowing tied to artificial intelligence and data-centre construction is competing for investor capital, said Johan Palmberg, senior quantitative analyst at the World Gold Council. A growing share of Treasury demand now comes from more price-sensitive investors such as hedge funds.

Those pressures have left investors demanding higher compensation for holding long-dated government debt, Palmberg said. The recent rise in Treasury yields suggests markets no longer assume Washington’s expanding debt supply will be absorbed effortlessly, he said. Instead, the balance between supply and demand is becoming an increasingly important driver of bond prices.

If market pressures continue, policymakers could eventually consider yield-curve control, under which the U.S. Federal Reserve would buy bonds to cap longer-term interest rates directly, he said. While the Treasury’s approach is being presented as a market-functioning measure, Palmberg suggested the distinction could become blurred.

“Just because it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, doesn’t mean it’s a duck,” he wrote. “It’s monetary policy’s version of plausible deniability.”

 

The policy was used in the United States during the 1940s and has also been adopted in recent years by Japan and Australia. Unlike quantitative easing, which targets the quantity of bonds purchased and substantially expands a central bank’s balance sheet, yield-curve control targets a specific interest rate and can require much less intervention if markets believe policymakers will defend the ceiling.

How gold benefits

For gold investors, Palmberg sees three principal benefits if the United States eventually moves in that direction. First, yield-curve control would probably weaken the U.S. dollar by shifting the adjustment away from bond markets and into the currency.

“The expensive U.S. dollar is already facing pressure from several corners and YCC . . . could increasingly force the adjustment through the currency rather than the bond market,” he wrote.

Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker greenback generally makes bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies and tends to support prices.

Second, capping government bond yields while inflation remains elevated would likely reduce real interest rates. Gold has historically performed well when inflation-adjusted bond yields decline because the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls.

Third, investors could increasingly view gold as protection against what economists call financial repression — governments holding borrowing costs below market levels to make debt more manageable.

 

Uncertainty

“A Treasury market that clears at an administratively influenced price brings uncertainty because investors don’t know where yields would settle absent intervention,” Palmberg wrote. He added that “markets can be relentless. It doesn’t require aggressive short sellers . . . just an absence of buyers.”

Palmberg cautioned that the outcome would not necessarily be uniformly positive for bullion. A credible and temporary yield-curve control program could restore confidence in bond markets, compress risk premiums and reduce safe-haven demand for gold despite lower yields.

History also suggests such policies can be difficult to maintain. The U.S. experience in the 1940s eventually collided with rising inflation and questions over Federal Reserve independence. Even so, Palmberg believes the broader investment case for gold remains intact.

“The debt mountain concern . . . remains one of the pillars of gold demand and any attempts to manage that burden not involving a reduction of debt or deficits are likely to continue favouring gold.”